Texas vs. Baylor College Football Picks: Take Bears to Cover ATS

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, December 1, 2015 7:10 PM GMT

Tuesday, Dec. 1, 2015 7:10 PM GMT

We look at the college football odds for the Big 12 matchup between the Texas Longhorns and the Baylor Bears and offer our Blowout of the Week college football pick.

Texas vs. Baylor (-20.5) Noon ET ESPN
Texas visits Baylor in the Big 12 regular season finale for each team.  Each of these teams comes off a loss.  In the case of the Longhorns, it was their 7th of the year, a heartbreaking home defeat to TTRR by a score of 48-45.  As incentive for Texas, they have revenge for a (28-7) home field loss last season to these Baylor Bears.  But, the reality of the situation is that this has been a series of dominance with Baylor standing 5-0 SU ATS vs. their in-state rival. 

 

Texas Longhorns
Should Texas win today, the 5-7 SU record, against a tough, Big 12 slate and including a victory vs. Oklahoma, could well be enough to garner them a Bowl bid.  A more probable scenario is that once they fall behind their clearly superior opponent, it could well be a towel tossing afternoon for the Longhorns.  Under 2nd year HC Strong, the win vs. Oklahoma was clearly the highlight.  The reality, however, is that this young Texas team is still a year or two away from competing against the upper echelon of the Big 12.  A meager 25 PPG offense is nowhere near the level that is needed to compete in this conference.  That is especially true when your defense is allowing 30 PPG.  Making matters worse for this young Texas team is that they have faltered badly when taking to the highway.  The 0-4 SU ATS road record includes losses of 35 at Notre Dame, 43 at TCU, 24 in a shutout loss at Iowa St. and 18 at WVU.  Their only hope is if Baylor has a letdown following their (28-21) OT loss at TCU last week.

 

Baylor Bears
Despite the 2 defeats, simply do not see that happening!  In the absence of their top 2 signal callers, QB Russell and QB Stidham, converted WR Johnson clearly struggled in last week’s monsoon in Ft. Worth.  But, the 6’5”, 235 lb. Johnson showed immense physical ability in the defeat.  Now, that he is back home against an opponent Baylor should dominate, he could well have an explosive game to prove himself.  Even with Johnson at the controls, the Bears could well average their 54 PPG of offense and 644 YPG average.  In that case, at this fair number, the Bears will improve their home field record to 14-5 ATS of late.

I invite you to put the college football odds in your favor, lay the 3 TD line with Baylor in my college football pick as the Blowout of the Week. 

College Football Picks: Baylor -20.5 at 5Dimes

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