Texas Tech will try to bounce back after allowing 70 points to Texas in 2021, the highest total ever allowed in 71 meetings between the schools. Here are our top Texas-Texas Tech picks for their Week 4 meeting.
Two rivals from the Lone Star State are set to open up conference play against one another in Week 4. The Texas Tech Red Raiders will seek their second win over a ranked team of the season when they welcome the Texas Longhorns to Lubbock.
After playing then-No. 1 Alabama to a one-point loss, Texas (3-0 ATS, 1-2 O/U) became the first team since 1997 to enter the AP Top 25 off of a loss. The Longhorns not only let the win slip away, but they also lost their starting quarterback to injury. That didn’t stop Texas from pulling away from UTSA in the second half of last week’s victory.
Saturday’s contest presents another opportunity for Texas Tech (1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U) to beat a ranked team at home. The Red Raiders actually went off as the betting favorite in their “upset” of Houston two weeks ago. Tech lost by 13 at NC State last weekend.
Texas vs. Texas Tech Game Info
Date: Saturday, Sept. 24th, 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, TX
Weather: 89 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 12-13 mph winds S
Texas vs. Texas Tech Odds Analysis
Bookmakers first opened Texas as a 5-point road favorite. The market has since inflated that number up to a consensus spread of Longhorns -6.5. Bettors are aligned on the Longhorns with 76% of the tickets accounting for 72% of the handle.
The Over/Under opened at 57.5. The market moved the line up from there and has settled in on a consensus number of 60 as of Thursday morning. Currently, 73% of all bets are on the Over.
Texas vs. Texas Tech Picks
Texas vs. Texas Tech ATS Pick
Texas Tech +7 (-112) ★★★★
With the spread sitting at Texas -6.5 across the market, it’s almost as if the odds are daring bettors to play the underdog. Thanks to shopping the odds, we are able to not only take the dare but also obtain a full 7-point line through BetRivers.
First-year Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire surprised many with the decision to make Donovan Smith his starting quarterback. The sophomore is prone to mistakes, but he isn’t lacking in dynamic playmaking ability. Having the solid backfield tandem of Tahj Brooks and SaRodorick Thompson lining up with him in the backfield certainly helps.
While six defensive starters returning from a year ago, the Red Raiders lost their top three tacklers from 2021. In addition, new coordinator Tim DeRuyter brought a 4-2-5 scheme with him. Tech has been solid on that side of the ball thus far.
Against star Longhorns back Bijan Robinson, Tech’s defensive front will need to rise to the occasion. While quarterback Hudson Card has impressed for Texas after Quinn Ewers was injured against Alabama, it’s tough to lay a full touchdown on the road with a backup quarterback.
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Texas vs. Texas Tech O/U Pick
Over 59.5 (-110) ★★
No matter how good or bad these schools are on offense any given year, their head-to-head matchups almost always seem to turn into shootouts. Despite the line having already moved two full points, the Over is still the preferred option. Once again, bettors can obtain a slight advantage over the rest of the market by targeting BetRivers’ total of 59.5.
Even with Card starting in place of the injured Ewers, Texas showed it still has plenty of offensive firepower in the win over UTSA last week. Robinson went off for 183 rushing yards and three scores.
Card will almost certainly have to provide more offense through the air this week as Texas Tech comes in having allowed only 82.7 rushing yards per game. However, with Xavier Worthy and Jordan Whittington making up a dynamic wide receiver duo, the Longhorns at least know they have the weapons to do some damage.
For the Red Raiders, Smith’s dual-threat capabilities combined with Tech’s solid running backs could cause major issues for a Longhorns defense that has looked vulnerable against the run.
Texas vs. Texas Tech Prop Pick
First-half spread: Texas Tech +4.5 (-120) ★★★★
While most of the betting market has the first half point spread set at Texas -3.5, FanDuel is offering bettors an additional point on the Red Raiders to cover for the first 30 minutes. So far this season, the Longhorns haven’t exactly burst out of the starting blocks offensively. Against both Alabama and even UTSA, Texas went into halftime deadlocked on the scoreboard.
What’s more, this will be the Longhorns’ first time playing outside of Austin this year. The home crowd in Lubbock is sure to be fired up at the start of the game which could lead to another sluggish first quarter and/or half for Texas.
Given how Texas has scored at will in each of the last two meetings between these teams, a certain element of pride could also come into play early on for the improved Red Raiders’ defense.
Where to Bet on Texas-Texas Tech Picks
Texas-Texas Tech picks made 9/21/2022 at 9:58 p.m. ET