Texas Tech vs. Kansas St. 'Over' 68 for College Football Picks

Jeff Grant

Thursday, October 2, 2014 1:49 PM GMT

Thursday, Oct. 2, 2014 1:49 PM GMT

Kansas State Wildcats head coach Bill Snyder really gets his team cranked up in October, which makes Saturday’s host one of the more attractive college football picks of the weekend against the Texas Tech Red Raiders.

Undisciplined Football
Texas Tech has a minus-five turnover margin and leads the Big 12 Conference with 46 penalties, which is a big reason why the program is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS through four games of the 2014 campaign.

The Red Raiders will have a hard time correcting their problems in playing back-to-back Big 12 road games for just the fourth time, which is important to consider when looking over the college football odds, especially since they changed defensive coordinators three games into the year.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the squad is 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS after two or more consecutive losses, with the OVER going 4-2 in those six opportunities.

 

Business as Usual
Kansas State has certainly exceeded expectations in winning three of four games to start the year, as longtime head coach Bill Snyder welcomed back just 11 offensive and defensive starters to Manhattan.

The Wildcats have captured the last three meetings in this series by a 145-84 combined margin, which can’t be ignored when making your Week 6 college football picks, especially since the program has compiled a 11-3 SU record in conference home games the previous three years.

It’s also important to point out that Snyder’s club has put together a dominating 21-6-1 ATS mark in its last 28 October games.

 

Caught In a Webb
College football handicappers will want to keep a close eye on the injury report, as Red Raiders quarterback Davis Webb is listed as questionable due to dislocating his non-throwing shoulder in last week’s 45-35 defeat to Oklahoma State as 14.5-point underdogs.

Webb enters this week as the Big 12 leader with 14 touchdown passes, which is a significant statistic given the fact that the Wildcats have allowed opposing signal-callers to thrown for eight touchdowns and complete 61.8 percent of their throws.

If he’s unable to go—head coach Kliff Kingsbury will hand the offense over to freshman Patrick Mahomes, who has the ability to extend plays a bit more with his feet than his predecessor.  

 

Doing the Little Things
The Wildcats have gained a reputation of doing the little things well during Snyder’s time in Manhattan, which includes ranking ninth in the country with just 147 penalty yards, but they’ll need to do a better job of taking care of the football.

Kansas State has a minus-two turnover differential heading into their fifth contest—a similar number to posting a minus-nine mark through six games last season.  The team went plus-nine the rest of the way in 2013.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend a bet on the total as one of my free picks this week, as the OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings in this series.

College Football Pick:  Over 68

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