Texas State vs. Troy Prediction, Tonight: Week 6 Picks & Odds
Both Texas State and Troy are coming off losses as they get set to play on Thursday at 7 p.m. ET (ESPNU) from Veterans Memorial Stadium in Troy, Ala.
- Despite a heartbreaking loss last week, Texas State is favored by 13 points at our college football betting sites, and we expect them to cover in our Texas State vs. Troy prediction
- While the Bobcats did start the season as a potential Group of Five College Football Playoff odds option, they're just 2-2 heading into Sun Belt play
- Texas State QB Jordan McCloud isn't quite a Heisman Trophy odds contender, but he's fit seamlessly in GJ Kinne's system
Texas State vs. Troy kicks off our Week 6 college football predictions, a game that should be full of explosive offensive plays.
Texas State vs. Troy odds movement
Texas State opened as a 15-point favorite at our college football betting sites. After jumping up as high as -16.5, the Bobcats are -13 ahead of kickoff.
The Trojans have 64% of the money on them covering, with just 36% on Texas State. The Over has 59% of the money, with the total hovering around 57.
Best Texas State vs. Troy picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Texas State -13 (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Troy ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop pick: Jordan McCloud Over 2.5 passing TDs (+110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Texas State vs. Troy against the spread prediction: Week 6
Texas State to cover the spread: -13 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
Texas State vs. Troy opening odds:
- Texas State: -15 (-110)
- Troy: +15 (-110)
Last week, Texas State blew a 22-0 lead against Sam Houston State to lose 40-39. This week, the Bobcats have the perfect get-right opportunity against a Troy team that's fallen apart under new head coach Gerard Parker.
The Trojans team that went 11-2 with Jon Sumrall in charge last year is gone, with many of the top players departing when Sumrall left for Tulane. As a result, Troy's defense has completely fallen apart.
Under Sumrall it was one of the best defenses in the G5. This season, though, Troy's 115th in EPA per rush and 130th in EPA per dropback. And its offense isn't good enough to make up the difference, scoring just the 109th most points per game (21.4).
Just spread 'em 'n' shred 'em
Don't let Texas State's record fool you, this is still one of the most exciting offenses in the country. GJ Kinne's spread-n-shred attack is nearly impossible to stop for G5 opponents.
The Bobcats are putting up the 22nd-most points in the country (37.5) and rank 44th in SP+ on offense. The passing game in particular, with McCloud cooking this season, should be able to fry the Trojans lackluster secondary.
I'm expecting Texas State to win with a score around 45 to 17. If they do, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Texas State vs. Troy prop pick for Week 6
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Jordan McCloud Over 2.5 passing TDs (+110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Kinne got lucky landing McCloud late in the transfer portal process after he won Sun Belt Player of the Year at James Madison last season. And he might take home the award again.
Since heading to San Marcos, McCloud has been as advertised. He leads the conference in TD passes (12) and has thrown at least three in three of four games.
Coming off his best game of the season - three big-time throws and an adjusted completion rate of 89.5% - I expect McCloud to shred Troy. And if he throws for Over 2.5 TDs, a $10 bet pays an $11 profit.
Best odds: +110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 47.62%
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Texas State vs. Troy odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Texas State vs. Troy game info
- When: Thursday, Oct. 3
- Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Veterans Memorial Stadium (Troy, Ala.)
- How to watch: ESPNU
- Weather: 75 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, 1 mph winds E
- Favorite: Texas State -13 (-110 via DraftKings)
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