TCU vs. Baylor Spread to Offer College Football Betting Value

Darin Zank

Wednesday, October 8, 2014 3:16 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 8, 2014 3:16 PM UTC

Baylor is on an impressive run, winning and covering the pointspread in 12 straight home games. The last team to beat the Bears in Waco was TCU, two seasons ago. Guess who Baylor hosts Saturday afternoon at the new McLane Stadium?


The Betting Odds
Much of the college football odds markets opened Baylor at around -11 over TCU, but as of mid-week most shops had dropped the Bears to around -8, indicating early action on the Frogs. Also, the total on this game started at 66, then moved to 67.

Those who think TCU might win this game outright could find prices of around +275 on the various money lines.

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Frogs-Bears Game Set-Up
After falling to 4-8 last season TCU has started 4-0 both SU and ATS this season. The Frogs opened with a 48-14 victory over Samford, covering the spread as 33-point favorites. They then beat Minnesota 30-7, covering at -17, and SMU 56-0, covering at -31. And last week TCU opened Big 12 play with a 37-33 win over Oklahoma, beating the Sooners outright as four-point home dogs.

The Frogs outgained OU last week 469-461, but the real key was scoring two defensive touchdowns.

TCU junior quarterback Trevone Boykin, with 20 career starts under his belt, has completed 62 percent of his throws this season, for a 10/2 TD/INT ratio, and leads the team in rushing with 260 yards. Last week he hit on 20 of 38 throws against Oklahoma, for 318 yards and two touchdowns, and ran for 77 yards.

Baylor, meanwhile, is 5-0 both SU and ATS this season. The Bears opened with a 45-0 victory over SMU, covering at -31, then beat Northwestern State 70-6, covering at -47, then beat Buffalo 63-21, covering at -33 on the road. Baylor then began Big 12 play with a 49-28 victory at Iowa State, covering at -20, and last week won at Texas 28-7, covering at -13.

The Bears outgained the Longhorns, but only by a 389-334 margin, as quarterback Bryce Petty was held to a 7-for-22 passing performance. But they did rush for 278 yards and held the 'Horns scoreless until a meaningless touchdown with two minutes to go in the game.


Frogs-Bears Recent History
These two former Southwest Conference rivals used to meet every season; that ended back in the 1990s, but they're now conference rivals again, and have met each season since 2010, splitting the last four contests.

Last year Baylor beat TCU 41-38, but the Frogs covered the spread as 13-point home dogs. The Bears led early 13-3, but TCU scored twice to take a 17-13 lead. Baylor then scored three straight touchdowns, two on interception returns, to lead 34-17, but the Frogs bounced back to score twice, getting within 34-31. Later, down by three points in the final moments, TCU drove to just outside the red zone but threw an interception with 11 seconds left.

The Frogs outgained the Bears that day 410-370, but four turnovers did 'em in.

Two years ago, as mentioned above, TCU came into Waco and upset Baylor 49-21 as six-point underdogs.


Frogs-Bears Betting Trends

TCU is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games in this series.

The Frogs are 3-1 on the totals this season, mainly because they've averaged 43 points per game.

Baylor is 3-2 on the totals, mainly because it leads all of FBS in scoring at 51 points per game.


Frogs-Bears Free Pick
This should be a dandy, but a couple of items point us toward Baylor. First, TCU is coming off a big home win over the Sooners last week; can Coach Patterson get his boys up for another big one this week? And the Frogs with Boykin are more one-dimensional on offense than are the Bears. So we'll go with Baylor, at the -7.5 offered at Bookmaker, for our free college football pick.

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