TCU vs. Oklahoma Free College Football Picks for Week 7

Oklahoma is coming off a hugely exciting win over rival Texas last week. Can the Sooners keep their momentum and cover the spread again? The top sportsbooks have released their college football odds for Saturday's game between TCU and Oklahoma.

For this contest, both the situation and the match-up will be crucial to consider. For reasons that I will explain, you should play the spread for this game.

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Oklahoma Sooners

Saturday, October 16, 2021 - 07:30 PM EDT at Memorial Stadium

The Situation and Odds

Oklahoma is coming off a monumentally important and monumentally exciting win in the Red River Shootout last week against major rival Texas. The Sooners pulled off the largest comeback in the history of the series by winning 55-48 after a 33-yard touchdown sealed the deal with three seconds left.

https://youtu.be/oAGxwfoxN6Y

After such a victory, it is unrealistic to ask college kids to avoid being emotional. Because of human nature, Sooner players were massively excited after the game.

This kind of excitement forms part of a recipe for a let-down situation. This upcoming game presents a classic fade spot for Oklahoma because, after achieving this tremendous victory, the Sooners should be expected to struggle to be excited for TCU.  Therefore, one should expect the Sooners to come out relatively disinterested, as disinterested as they were relatively excited after the Texas game.

https://twitter.com/OU_Football/status/1446925009310584837?s=20

For their upcoming game against TCU, though, I do not want to hang my hat on a let-down situation, although it seems like just the spot for it. My reasoning is that, normally, Oklahoma gets the week off after facing Texas. This bye week was probably put in place to protect Oklahoma, which is normally the Big 12's best hope of getting a team in the conference into the playoffs, from such a let-down situation.

Therefore, there is not a historical precedent in place to suggest a let-down situation. Plus, in 2019, the Sooners did face West Virginia a week after playing Texas and they managed to cover the spread. However, the Sooners likely had the 2018 game against that game West Virginia in mind, which was an extremely close, three-point game.

For that reason, West Virginia likely had OU's full attention. However, this specific situation is not in play for TCU, which was blown out by Oklahoma last year.

Caleb Williams #13 of the Oklahoma Sooners. Tim Warner/Getty Images/AFP

So, to summarize, I think it is possible that the Sooners have a let-down on Saturday. This possibility is a bonus for our play. With our best bets in mind, I still think the situation favors TCU, but for a different reason. Oddsmakers are still according Oklahoma a tremendous level of respect by favoring it by double digits. However, the Sooners repeatedly fail to close the door on opposing teams.

They beat the AAC's Tulane by five, Nebraska by seven, West Virginia by three, Kansas State by six, and Texas by seven. Of those teams, only the Longhorns were ranked. Kansas State and West Virginia are currently winless Big 12 bottom-feeders. Tulane is 1-5.  Relevantly for this game, even when Oklahoma managed to run very well against Nebraska, the Cornhuskers still covered the spread with ease.

Recent history thus assures us that there is no basis for favoring the Sooners so heavily. This year, when facing an FBS school, the closest they came to covering a double-digit spread was the Kansas State game when they were 6.5 points removed from a push.

https://twitter.com/TCUFootball/status/1447293104730554368?s=20

Putting TCU's Defense in Perspective 

Any Oklahoma backer will want to point to TCU's poor defensive statistics, so they are important to address for our college football sports betting. Typically, a Gary Patterson defense needs time to gel. Last year, for example, TCU allowed over 30 points in three of its first four games of the season. However, the Horned Frogs finished their last six games without allowing 30 points a single time.

This year, we see a similar trend, only observing it requires more subtlety because of the offensive quality that TCU's defense has had to face and because of some injuries on the Horned Frog defense. Against SMU, TCU's defense did play terribly, but TCU without exception plays terribly and loses the week before Texas. 

Then, however, the Horned Frogs played a Texas team that averages 44.5 points per game but scored 12 fewer against TCU. 

https://twitter.com/TCUFootball/status/1447201692953440261?s=20

Most recently, TCU played a Texas Tech squad that averages 36.2 points per game but was down 38-10 in the third quarter. When it was at all a game, the Horned Frog defense locked the Red Raiders down.

Since the season opener, the Horned Frogs have also gotten some meaningful pieces back on their defense, including some depth on the defensive end. Also, top TCU cornerback Noah Daniels might play: he is listed as 'questionable. More depth on the defensive line is a welcome asset for a Horned Frog front seven that will need to limit the Sooner run game.

Offensively, Oklahoma looks relatively one-dimensional because it lacks a reliable starting quarterback. Spencer Rattler has thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns this season against FBS teams. During the Texas game, he was benched.

TCU Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense 

In the last two weeks, the Sooners have allowed opposing quarterbacks to accumulate just over 700 passing yards, eight touchdowns, and zero interceptions.

One of those quarterbacks, Kansas State's Skylar Thompson, has been known throughout his career as more of a runner, a guy who scrambles and executes option runs rather than tries to pick apart an opposing secondary. TCU quarterback Max Duggan resembles Thompson in this respect. Duggan also has the benefit of throwing to the same top-four wide receivers as he did last year.

Zach Evans #6 of the TCU Horned Frogs. John E. Moore III/Getty Images/AFP

Behind Zach Evans and his 7.9 YPC and Kendre Miller and his 8.9 YPC, the Horned Frogs will look to build off last week's 394-yard rushing effort against OU's slightly banged-up defensive line that definitely misses potential starter, Jalen Redmond.

For the above reasons, invest in TCU with your NCAAF picks.

NCAAF Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.