Taking An Early Look At The Trends & Streaks For College Football Week 2

Utah Utes QB Runs With Ball

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, September 6, 2016 5:41 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 6, 2016 5:41 PM UTC

Week 2 of College Football presents some interesting matchups and some angles covered in the betting trends & streaks compiled by our expert handicapper. Read on, and educate yourself!

NCAAF College Football Week 2 kicks off on Friday night with a great and nationally televised game from the Carrier Dome in Syracuse between the host Orange and the #19-ranked Louisville Cardinals. Here is a recap of what happened ATS-wise from Thursday to Saturday in Week 1 along with some of the strongest Trends and current ATS Streaks as well as some related picks for Friday and Saturday for NCAA College Football Week 2.


Opening Weekend of College Football Rough One For Oklahoma, Mississippi State

College Football Week 1 was about what we could expect. Outside of the biggest FPI upset in the L5 seasons as South Alabama defeated host Mississippi State, 21-20 as Bulldogs PK Westin Graves missed a go-ahead 28-yard FG with just 6 seconds left in a game in which the Jaguars had just a 2.3% chance to win. And one in which the smaller Sun Belt Conference side went into as massive 27½-point underdogs at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville. Also, #15 (AP) Houston’s 33-23 upset over #3 Oklahoma at NRG Stadium in Houston on Saturday (OKLA -13½) in which Cougars QB Greg Ward Jr. had a nice opening game in the upset. 

Expect Houston to rise into the Top 10 and with seemingly only one big game left on the Regular Season schedule against Louisville in Houston (Nov. 17). It seems that right now would be the ideal time to make future college football odds on both the Cougars and Ward before the Hype Machine kicks into high gear. Offshore sportsbook operator 5Dimes—which has a 50% Free Play Sign-Up Bonus and gets an A+ in our latest SBR ratings—has the highest current price on Houston to win it all at 75/1.

Odds favorites were 68-15 SU but just 38-43-3 (46.9%) at the best online sportsbooks, with Home teams going 61-16 (33-43-1 ATS) in a week which traditionally sees a large number of conference mismatches. With the big boys from the bigger conferences usually racking up large wins with the little road underdogs from the smaller conferences usually getting smacked around, but getting a healthy payday to do so. And the Under went a healthy 42-27-3 (60.1%) with all of the highest Totals games like Tulsa-San Jose State (70, TULSA 45-10), SMU-North Texas (69, SMU 34-21), Oklahoma-Houston (68, HOU 33-23) and Boise State-Louisiana Lafayette (64, BOISE ST. 45-10) all going Under.

The three largest Odds Underdogs to win straight up in Week 1 were aforementioned South Alabama (+3,000) over Mississippi State, Eastern Washington (+2,750) over Washington State (45-42) and Albany (+1,125) over Buffalo (22-16). So with Week 1 wrapped, let’s get an early look at some of the key Trends and Streaks heading into NCAA College Football Week 2 along with a couple of weekend college football predictions for your consideration.


Friday, September 9, 2016

Louisville Cardinals vs Syracuse Orange
Last year, Louisville rolled Syracuse in this game, 41-17 (LOU - 17) at Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium in Louisville as the Cardinals racked up 579 total yards of Offense. The key Trends here are the OVER going 8-1 the L9 Syracuse September Home games and Louisville going 4-1 ATS L5 vs. Syracuse in this ACC series. Cardinals QB Lamar Jackson accounted for a school-record 8 TDs in the 1st Half of the Cardinals 70-14 romp over Charlotte on Thursday night in a game in which the hosts led 56-0 at Halftime. 

So can Louisville put up 50 points or more on the FieldTurf playing surface of the Carrier Dome in a game in which they’ve only scored 28 and 26 points the last two trips? This should be a huge challenge for Louisville but with fantastic WRs like Jamari Staples, fellow all-ACC candidate James Quick, converted QB Reggie Bonnafon, Jaylen Smith, Ja’Quan Savage, Traveon Samuel and TE Cole Hikutini, and others, Jackson may have a hard time pleasing everyone in this incredibly deep Receiving corps this season. The Orange will definitely be up for this game but it seems a track meet can’t help but evolve, with the Cardinals nearing that 50-point mark in another impressive, blowout win, this time against a much. Much better opponent in their own stadium. 

Free College Football Pick: Louisville -14 (-110) 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Saturday, September 10, 2016

Iowa State Cyclones vs Iowa Hawkeyes
A corn-fed Hawkeye State intrastate rivalry this weekend from aptly-named Iowa City and Kinnick Stadium (FieldTurf) where #17 Iowa plays host to Iowa State. In Week 1, Iowa defeated Miami of Ohio, 45-21 but failed to cover ATS as huge 27½-point chalks while Iowa State struggled against a game Northern Iowa side and lost outright as 9½-point Underdogs, 25-20 at Home in Ames. The Cyclones were their own worst enemies against the Panthers going just 3-of-11 on 3rd Down (27%), having 9 Penalties for 89 yards and losing 2 Fumbles and 2 Interceptions in the opener. Expect a better performance here from Iowa State and QB Joel Lansing and this is one the Cyclone can actually possibly win despite their Week 1 performance, the Rankings and the big double-digit opening Point Spread here as Iowa just isn’t as good, especially on Defense, as many think. 

Free College Football Pick: Iowa State +15
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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BYU Cougars vs. Utah Utes
Another intrastate rivalry, this one the Holy War from Utah and it picks right up where it left off from when these two teams played in the same conference (1922-2010) with this battle for the Beehive Boot from Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City this weekend. The last time these two met was last year in the 2015 Las Vegas Bowl in Sin City where the Utes won 35-28 and covered ATS as 2½-point chalks. 

In their Week 1 opener, Utah shut out Southern Utah, 24-0 as Utah QB Troy Williams was 20-for-35 for 272 yards Passing and 2 TDs with WR Tim Patrick being the main beneficiary. The Trends here show Utah to be 4-0 ATS the L4 games against BYU and with the Cougars edging Arizona in Tucson on Saturday night on a FG with 4 seconds to go in another low-scoring game, 18-16, the Under may also be worth a look here when Totals market numbers are posted early this week. But even with the game in Salt Lake City, the scores of the last two meetings between these two combined with the fact that a good college football team will be getting its first Loss here in a game neither wants to lose makes taking the hosts on the Money Line for a small amount along with the Under he picks here. Utah has just opened up as solid 4½-point Home favorites (-115) on Sunday afternoon. 

Free College Football Pick: Utah Utes -170
Best Line Offered: at Heritage



Saturday, September 10 Trends & Streaks


Miscellaneous NCAAF Games Trends

  • Florida 8-1 ATS L9 vs. Kentucky

  • Florida 3-1 ATS L4 at Home vs. Kentucky

  • Mississippi St 6-1 ATS L7 vs. South Carolina

  • Arkansas 3-1 ATS L4 vs. TCU

  • Ball State 3-0 ATS L3 vs. Indiana

  • Rice 3-1 ATS L4 vs. Army

  • San Diego St. 3-1 ATS L3 Home vs. California

  • Duke 5-0 ATS L5 vs. Wake Forest

  • Notre Dame 3-0-1 ATS L4 vs. Michigan St.

  • Middle Tennessee St 3-1 ATS L4 vs. Vanderbilt

  • New Mexico 4-1-1 ATS L6 Away at New Mexico St.


NCAAF Top Current Winning and Losing ATS Streaks

  • Toledo 9-2 ATS L11 after ATS W Thursday at Arkansas St (10-2-1 ATS since 2015)

  • Washington State 9-2 ATS L11 after ATS L Saturday vs. EW (10-4 since 2015)

  • South Florida 6-1-1 ATS L8 after ATS W Saturday vs Towson (10-3-1 ATS s/2015)

  • South Mississipi 4-2 ATS L6 after ATS W Saturday vs. Kentucky (11-4 ATS since 2015)

  • Charlotte 0-2-5 ATS L7 after ATS L Thursday at Louisville (2-8-2 ATS s/2015)

  • Kentucky 1-7 ATS L8 after ATS L Saturday vs. Southern Miss (3-10 ATS since 2015)

  • Central FLORIDA 1-6 ATS L7 after ATS W Saturday vs. South Carolina St. (3-10 ATS s/2015)

  • Missouri 1-5 ATS L6 after ATS L Saturday at West Virginia (2-10 ATS since 2015)

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