Take Syracuse +23.5 for Solid NCAAF Pick over Florida State

Jeff Grant

Tuesday, October 7, 2014 1:09 PM GMT

The Florida State Seminoles are coming off their first against-the-spread victory of the 2014 betting campaign, but they may get caught looking past the Syracuse Orange Saturday.

Rolling Along
The Florida State Seminoles will put its school record 21-game win streak on the line at the Carrier Dome, as it enters Week 7 of the college football season as the clear favorite to repeat as national champions, while it looks to build off a 43-3 blowout victory over Wake Forest as 37.5-point home favorites.

The Seminoles have put together a 13-4 SU record on the road against Atlantic Coast Conference opponents under head coach Jimbo Fisher—averaging 37.9 points in that situation.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the program has gone 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS as favorites of 21.5 to 31 points, with the 'over' going 4-3 in those seven opportunities.

 

A Tall Task
Syracuse is mired in a three-game SUATS losing streak, and it now needs to replace starting quarterback Terrel Hunt, who is expect to miss four-to-six weeks with a leg injury.

The Orange have dropped eight of their previous nine all-time meetings against the No. 1 team in the country, which means it’s hard to imagine that Austin Wilson will register a win in his first career start under center.

College football handicappers need to keep a close watch on any line moves in this matchup, as the host will be celebrating Homecoming and it has gone 6-0 ATS off a loss against a conference rival since 2012.

 

Looking Ahead
The Seminoles could easily look past the Orange due to their 59-3 win as 37.5-point home favorites in last year’s meeting, as all eight of their scoring drives lasted less than three minutes, but Fisher’s locker room is dealing with some major injuries.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Florida State took a cautious approach with some of its banged up football players, especially since it has a marquee game against Notre Dame on deck in Tallahassee.  

 

Win the Turnover Battle
The Orange are capable of earning a point-spread victory in this spot if they continue to win the turnover battle, as they’ve committed just four miscues this season, while their offensive line has surrendered just three quarterback sacks.

A big reason why Florida State is 1-4 ATS through five games of the season is it enters this affair with a minus-two turnover differential.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Orange as one of their Week 7 College Football picks, as the Seminoles have failed to cover the number in 10 of their last 14 road games.

Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston provides the visitor a major edge under center in this game, but he may also take the field without some key contributors, including wide receiver Rashad Greene (concussion) and running back Karlos Williams (ankle).

I also suggest waiting to see if this number gets to 24 in the market before getting involved.

Free College Football Pick: Syracuse Orange +23.5 at Pinnacle Sports

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