Take the Points for Arizona vs. Oregon College Football Pick

Darin Zank

Monday, September 29, 2014 7:03 PM GMT

Monday, Sep. 29, 2014 7:03 PM GMT

Both Oregon and Arizona are 4-0 SU this season, but only 1-3 against the NCAAF betting odds. Who will cover when the teams meet for a North-South Pac-12 battle Thursday night in Eugene 

The Betting Odds
In the early betting most of the College Football odds market was chalking Oregon at -22.5 or -23 over Arizona. Those out there who believe the Wildcats might pull a repeat performance of last year's upset of the Ducks could get a price of +1280 on the money line at 5Dimes.

 

The Situation
Arizona, with 13 starters back from a team that went 8-5 last year, opened this season with a 58-13 victory over UNLV, covering as a 21-point favorite. The Wildcats then defeated UT-San Antonio 26-23, but couldn't cover as a seven-point favorite on the road. The 'Cats then beat Nevada 35-28 but couldn't cover at -20. And two weeks ago Arizona needed a Hail Mary miracle to defeat California 49-45, but again, couldn't cover at -8.

The Wildcats trailed the Bears early 28-6, and 45-30 with five minutes to go, but scored twice in quick succession, then got a 47-yard connection between red-shirt freshman QB Anu Solomon and WR Austin Hill in the corner of the end zone on the last play of the game for the most unlikely victory.

Arizona fell behind by allowing Cal 573 yards of offense, 193 on the ground.

Solomon, who had never thrown a college pass before the UNLV game, has completed 63 percent of his throws so far, for 1,454 yards (that's 364 YPG) and a 13/3 TD/INT ratio.

Oregon, meanwhile, with 13 starters back from a team that went 11-2 last year, opened this season with a 62-13 win over South Dakota, missing the cover at -52 by a field goal. The Oregon Ducks then rallied to beat Michigan State 46-27, covering at -14. They then defeated Wyoming 48-14 but declined to cover at -42. And two weeks ago Oregon had to battle like hell to beat Washington State 38-31, but couldn’t cover as a 23-point road favorite.

The Ducks had last week off.

Oregon racked up 501 yards on offensive against the Cougars, but gave up 499, as Wazzu QB Connor Halliday kept his team in the game with four TD passes.

 

'Cats-Ducks Recent History
Oregon had won five in a row in this series, but last year Arizona shot down the Ducks 42-16, winning outright as an 18-point home dog. The 'Cats pounced out to a 28-9 halftime lead, upped that to 35-9 in the third quarter and coasted from there for the big upset victory. Arizona outrushed Oregon that day 307-198, held the ball for over 35 minutes and won the turnover battle 3-0. That's how you pull upsets, and cover spreads.

 

'Cats-Ducks Betting Trends
Arizona is 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series.

Oregon is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall, and just 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  Perhaps those big pointspreads are finally taking a toll on the Ducks' ability to make us money with our College Football picks.

 

'Cats-Ducks Free Pick
Oregon is probably thinking 'payback' for the humiliating loss last year at Arizona, and will probably win this game. But the Ducks have been having some troubles covering those big numbers recently. And their offensive line, which gave up five sacks in the first half against Washington State, is a little banged up. So we'll go with the Wildcats, plus the 23 points offered at Pinnacle, for our free pick on this contest.  

Free College Football Pick: Arizona Wildcats +23 at Pinnacle

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