Take Ole Miss -24 Over LA-Lafayette for College Football Picks

Nikki Adams

Thursday, September 11, 2014 8:31 PM GMT

Ole Miss Rebels look to extend their winning form to 3 straight when they host LA-Lafayette in their season home opener. College Football odds tell a very one-sided story that seems to favour the hosts in no uncertain terms, making it a mismatch of great proportions. So where are the value college football picks? 

Louisiana Lafayette (1-1, 0-0 Sun Belt)
LA-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns have had a so-so start to the season, opening with a 45-6 win over Southern before collapsing to a 48-20 defeat to Louisiana Tech despite being roughly a two-touchdown fave.

The defeat to Louisiana Tech hurt in other ways and could have lingering repercussions: because it cost them a potential 2-0 start at the expense of two beatable sides to start the season, the Ragin Cajuns descend on No.14 Ole Miss with a 1-1 record, which puts them in very real danger of slipping to 1-2 record before a trip to Boise State on September 20.

The Ragin Cajuns turned over the ball three times, which cost them their much hoped for victory before heading to Ole Miss. Terence Broadway went 19-of-31 for 150 yards with one touchdown and one interception, while rushing for 82 yards on 13 attempts. Brooks Haacks went 10-of-13 for 87 yards and one touchdown.

 

Ole Miss 2-0, 1-0 SEC)
Ole Miss Rebels are off to a perfect 2-0 start and top spot in SEC West with wins over Boise State (35-13) and Vanderbilt (41-3). Combined they’ve scored 76 points all while conceding just 16 points over the course of two games. On overall offense they are ranked 29th with 1005 total yards, a passing offense that is 7th in the league at 377 yards per game and a fifth overall defense in FBS rankings with an average of 8 points against.

Two-games is a nominal sample size, but the team as a whole has shown some promising signs that could see them continue on this rich vein of form. Senior QB Bo Wallace is completing over 70% of his passes – (something Eli Manning wishes he could too) – for over 700 yards, five touchdowns and a passer rating of 178.6. In their last outing, Wallace went 23-of-30 for 320 yards and a touchdown.

The emergence of Cody Core as a potent wide receiver has been a pleasant development. He has already 8 passes caught for 195 yards and three touchdowns in two games (an average of 24 yards per catch), providing Wallace with yet another deep threat over and above Laquon Treadwell and Evan Engram.

 

Recent Betting Trends:
Ragin' Cajuns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit home loss.
Ragin' Cajuns are 12-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Rebels are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.
Rebels are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Rebels are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven home games
Rebels are 5-2 against the spread against the Sun Belt.
Rebels are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games.
Ragin Cajuns are 18-6 against the spread following a loss.
Ragin Cajuns are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven road games.
Under is 5-1 in Rebels last 6 games in September.

 

College Betting Verdict
Ole Miss are the whopping favourites at -4000 to win straight up, which is a mad money line bet. Only for those with silly money to play with because the rest of us average folk play with nominal sums and at such prices there isn’t any worthwhile return on investment.

On the flipside of the coin, LA Lafayette are matched at whopping +1550 to win straight up. But the chances of that College Football pick actually coming through are slim to none; otherwise, bookies wouldn’t be sooo confident on Ole Miss.

So if you are betting on this game, you’ll be better served with  College Football odds on the spread and totals. Ole Miss are the 27-point favourites while the LA Lafayete the 24-point underdogs and the totals are hovering at 58 points. Given how solid defense has been for Ole Miss, all while offense has been firing at all cylinders, the Rebels look good to cover at the expense of LA Lafayete and a rather modest offense. This should be a blowout by Ole Miss by all accounts.

NCAAF Picks: Ole Miss -24 at Bet365

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