Sugar Bowl Picks: Back Ole Miss' Striking Offense Over Oklahoma State

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, December 30, 2015 6:34 PM GMT

We look at the college football odds for the Sugar Bowl game between Ole Miss and Oklahoma State and provide our betting analysis and college football pick.

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College Football Picks: Ole Miss -7
Best Line Offered: at TheGreek

 

Mississippi vs. Oklahoma State 8:30PM ET
SEC meets BIG 12 in the Super Dome on New Year’s Eve, Friday January 1st. This classic Sugar Bowl confrontation features a pair of high scoring teams in Ole Miss and Oklahoma St. The opinion in this analysis favors the Ole Miss Rebels, who were the lone team to defeat Alabama, and played a powerful SEC schedule. Oklahoma St., conversely, was exposed late in the season after a favorable schedule. 

 

Betting Preview
Oklahoma St. began the year with 10 consecutive victories, but there was not an upper echelon BIG 12 team other than an injured TCU Horned Frog among the victims. Nonetheless, they appeared in good shape, with home games remaining against Baylor and Oklahoma. In those two contests, their defense was exposed as they allowed 103 combined points, with a pair of double digit losses, on their home field. Is this Bowl redemption for the 0-2 SU ATS finish? I don’t think so, for in the final five games of the season, against BIG 12 powerhouse offenses, the Cowboys allowed 588 YPG and 216 total points for an average of 43 PPG. Behind the duel QB tandem of Rudolph (63% completions with 21/9 ratio) and QB Walsh with  13/1 ratio. The Cowboys averaged 41/489, but that was greatly unbalanced as they ran for just 132/3.7 overland. With QB Rudolph questionable for this contest with an injured foot, the offensive production may be limited. That would be death against an Ole Miss team whose HC Freeze is 2-0 SU ATS when favored in Bowls as the coach of the Rebels. 

Speaking of Freeze, he continues to be among the biggest money makers in the NCAA. In one year at the helm of Arkansas St., his Red Wolves went 9-3 ATS. He has followed that up with seasons of 9-3 ATS, 7-5 ATS, 8-4 ATS, and 8-4 ATS this year at the helm of the Rebels in his fourth season. That is a combined 41-19 ATS as head coach. We have used him as a meal ticket many times.  Among the best subsets of that coaching record are when facing non-SEC teams and when facing a foe who is off a loss.  On their resume is the scalp of Alabama, who suffered their only defeat of the season when Ole Miss won in Tuscaloosa 43-37 September 19th. Not that the Rebels did not suffer their own indiscretions, with a 38-10 loss to Florida, and a 37-24 embarrassment to AAC member Memphis. But that defeat motivated them for a 4-1 SU ATS finish, with the only loss being to the “Hog Mary” vs Arkansas on November 7th. With offensive triplets of QB Kelly, RB Walton, and WR Treadwell, they present an offensive profile that is far more balanced than the Cowboys. In addition, their 23/388 defense is far superior to the Cowboys. Rebels won’t lack more motivation considering that, to a man, they well remember their 42-3 Bowl loss last season to TCU. 

I invite you to put the college football odds in your favor and join me in my college football pick with Ole Miss minus the points in this year’s Sugar Bowl.