Strong Offenses & Weak Defenses Makes 'Over' the College Football Pick in SMU vs. Houston

Ross Benjamin

Monday, October 5, 2015 10:21 PM GMT

We’re going to take an early glance at Thursday’s Conference USA contest between SMU and Houston. Go inside to find out the skinny on this game, and also get our college football pick.

Apparent Mismatch on Thursday’s Mustangs/Cougars Clash
The Houston Cougars (4-0) and SMU Mustangs (1-3) will square off on Thursday night. The opening kickoff at Houston Football Stadium is slated for 8:00 PM ET. According to college football odds at the time of this writing (10/5), Houston is a 25.0 to 26.0 point favorite, and the total ranges from 73.5 to 74.0. Houston has defeated SMU in each of the past two seasons, and outscored them by a cumulative margin of 69-9.

 

Long way to go for SMU
SMU is off to a 1-4 start, and they’ve now gone 2-16 during their previous eighteen games. On a positive note, SMU has drastically improved on the offensive side of the ball, compared to last season’s debacle that saw them score 13 points or less in nine of twelve games. They enter this week averaging 31.4 points scored and 428.8 yards per game. However, their defense hasn’t held up their end of the bargain. The Mustangs stop unit is surrendering 44.4 points and 593.4 yards per game. They’ve seen four of their first five games go over the total, and there was a combined average of 75.8 points scored per contest.

 

Houston eying a New Year’s Day Bowl
Former Ohio State offensive coordinator Tom Herman has the Houston Cougars off to an impressive 4-0 start, and that includes a 34-31 win as a 13.0 point underdog at Louisville. Houston has averaged a robust 45.7 points scored and a massive 604 yards per game. If there’s a vulnerability to the Cougars game it’s defensively. Houston has allowed opponents an average of 398 yards of total offense per outing.

 

Final Analysis
There was a very intriguing huge early line move on this game. Houston opened as a 21.5 point chalk, and rapidly moved to 26.0 with no apparent injuries prompting that change. I rarely if ever lay this many points on a favorite. I’m always enticed by legitimate underdog value, but one of my prerequisites when determining exactly that is having a realistic chance of winning outright. This doesn’t qualify as one of those situations. I do like this to be a extremely high scoring affair, and one of my college football picks will be indicative of that prediction.

College Football Pick: SMU & Houston over 73.5 at Bookmaker

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