Strong Defenses & Recent Low Scores Between Louisville & Florida State Make 'Under' 46 Our College Football Pick

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, October 14, 2015 12:44 AM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2015 12:44 AM UTC

Our handicapper provides an early look at Saturday’s game between Louisville and Florida State. Read this revealing betting preview article, which concludes with his college football pick on the total.

Louisville Makes First ACC Road Trip to Tallahassee
The #11 Florida State Seminoles (5-0) and Louisville Cardinals (2-3) will square off in an ACC showdown on Saturday. The opening kickoff at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee is slated for Noon ET. Early college football odds at Heritage indicate that Florida State is a 7-point favorite and the total is 46. This is the Louisville Cardinals second season as an ACC member, and they lost at home to Florida State 42-31 last year.


Cardinals Begin to Awaken
The Louisville Cardinals got off to a nightmarish 0-3 start this year, and those three losses came by a combined 13 points. Those defeats came at the hands of Auburn (3-2), #24 Houston (5-0) and #5 Clemson (5-0) who have a cumulative record of 13-2 in 2015. They’ve since rebounded to win their last two games. It must be noted that the first of those victories came over Samford (FCS) 45-3. However, last week was certainly a quality win. They faced a much improved North Carolina State team on the road, and came away with a 20-13 win as a 2.5 point underdog. Entering this season the Cardinals defense was labeled as the team’s strong suit. They started slow but have really come on during their last three games. During that stretch, the defense allowed just 12.0 points and 276.7 yards per game. Louisville has gone under the total in each of their previous three, and those contests averaged a combined 39.3 points scored per game.


Continuing the Winning Tradition
Florida State comes off a hard fought 29-24 win over the Miami Hurricanes last Saturday. The Seminoles football program has now gone 32-1 in their last 33 games under head coach Jimbo Fisher. One aspect of their game which has drastically improved compared to last season is on the defensive side. Florida State is allowing a paltry 14.0 points and 310.2 yards per game. By the way, Florida State has committed just 1 turnover so far this year, and none in each of their previous four games. The Seminoles have gone under the total in each of their previous four, and those contests averaged a combined 38.8 points scored.


College Football Totals Betting System
Any road team with a total of 42.5 to 49.0, coming off 14 or more days of rest between games, resulted in the road team going 37-12 under the total since 2011. The average total in those 49 contests was 46.3, and there was a combined 40.6 points scored per game. I’m going to have an early lean on this game playing under the total as one of my college football picks.

College Football Picks: 'Under' 46 (-105) at Heritage

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