Steamroller NCAAF Pick: Georgia Southern vs. Texas St.

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, November 6, 2014 7:38 PM GMT

This College football handicapper takes a moment to review the basis of a highly successful play known as "Steamrollers" which he has used in the last 25 years of NCAAF betting.

Steamroller Game of the Year Weekend In College Football Betting   
To consider a College Football match as a 'Steamroller', we look for either balanced explosive offensive teams, who are members of our 200 Club, knowing that any team that runs and passes for 200 or more yards, against an opponent who does not, has a 76% chance to beat the spread.  Likewise, as is the case today, any team who double rushes their opponent by a greater than 2 to 1 margin has a 75% chance to beat the spread in College Football odds.  Outlining the statistical differences in each of these programs will make it clear why Georgia Southern is a prime candidate for the 6% STEAMROLLER GAME OF THE YEAR. 

Is there any question who we like for our College Football pick in this game, especially noting that it is STEAMROLLER WEEKEND?!  

Yes, the Eagles, the No. 1 rushing team in the land, at 403/7.3 are a prime candidate.  Major concern is that the price in College Football odds is creeping upward every week and that when Georgia Southern made their last trip this far west, they saw the only blemish on their 4-1 ATS road log in a 36-28 win, no cover, at New Mexico St.  But, there have also been narrow losses by a combined 5 points AT NC State and GA Tech and road wins of 22 AT USA and 38 AT GA State in Sun Belt play.  

The Texas St. defense is yet another sieve that should allow the Eagles to soar.  In last week’s 37-29 Texas St. win at New Mexico St., the Bobcats were outgained 639-430.  Yes, the Aggies of New Mexico St. gained 639 yards.  Now, the Bobcats return home as DEFENSIVE DUD, allowing 218/4.6 overland and 243/7.1 through the air.  There is the Super Surge motivation of the 5-win Bobcats to qualify for a Bowl.  But, the last time they suited up on this field against a quality Sun Belt foe, it was a 34-10 loss to LA Lafayette.  We have made a lot of money backing Georgia Southern this year, including last Thursday night, when they outrushed Troy 421-141 in a 42-10 victory that was never in doubt.  Only complacency prevents the Sun Belt’s No. 1 team at 6-0 SU from coverage in this one.