Will the Ducks' offense become the third-straight PAC-12 unit to hang 40-plus points on the Cardinal's defense? Read on for our Stanford-Oregon picks.
It’s been a topsy-turvy start to 2022 for Stanford as the Cardinal's traditionally meticulous offense has pushed the pace while trying to cover for defensive lapses galore. Is this another week when Stanford is forced out of its comfort zone at Oregon?
Stanford vs. Oregon Game Info
Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 1, 11:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX Sports Networks
Location: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR
Weather: 66 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 2-mph winds
Stanford vs. Oregon Picks
Stanford vs. Oregon Odds Analysis
Oregon opened as a 15-point favorite, and the line has moved to -17 at both FanDuel and DraftKings, where 60% of the cash has been wagered on the Ducks.
The total opened at 62.5. Currently, 51% of the cash is going toward the Over, pushing the number to 63.5 at FanDuel and 64 at DraftKings.
Stanford vs. Oregon Picks
Stanford vs. Oregon ATS Pick
Oregon -17 (-110) ★★★
Oregon ranks 11th in the nation in offensive efficiency, according to ESPN’s College Football Power Index. Meanwhile, Stanford sits 113th in efficiency defensively, setting the Ducks up for what should be an explosive evening in Eugene.
Though the Oregon defense ranks 81st in the FBS in efficiency, the Ducks’ strength on that side of the ball is defending the run, as they're allowing just 82 yards per game in 2022. Oregon ranks 130th out of 131 FBS teams while coughing up 373 passing yards per game, but that’s not a strength for Stanford.
I trust a balanced Stanford attack to exploit Oregon’s weakness through the air enough to keep pace and cover. And I trust the Cardinal's defense even less to slow down a Ducks offense that dropped 44 on the road in Week 4 against a 30th-ranked Washington State defense in efficiency.
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Stanford vs. Oregon O/U Pick
Over 63.5 (-110) ★★★★
In contrast to Stanford's usual style, the Cardinal have looked to play fast in 2022 while running a play every 21.7 seconds (11th-fasted pace in the FBS). While admirable, that game plan hasn’t been keeping them competitive against conference foes.
The methodical Huskies offense further exposed Stanford's defense in Week 4, matching the output of the Trojans with a 40-point eruption.
Oregon's games have gone 3-1 to the Over, while totals in Stanford's contests are 1-1-1. Stanford’s willingness to run a fast offense when trailing heavily is a boon for the Over during the school's matchups. While its firepower pales in comparison to Oregon’s offense, Stanford's offensive efficiency ranks among the top 50 in the FBS, checking in at No. 45.
Oregon's defense allowed Washington State (81st in offensive efficiency) to hang 41 in its last game. There's a path for the Cardinal to finish with a total in the mid-20s.
Stanford vs. Oregon Prop Pick
Oregon Over 40.5 (-110) ★★★
Oregon’s 49-3 season-opening loss to Georgia is bringing down its 29.6 per-game scoring average. But It’s possible that outcome showed more about Georgia than Oregon. The Ducks have proceeded to pile up 70, 41, and 44 points in their subsequent games, clearing the team total set for Saturday in each contest.
Oregon’s 11th-ranked offensive efficiency leads to a very favorable matchup against Stanford’s bottom-barrel defense. The Cardinal surrendered 40-plus points to both USC (fourth-ranked in offensive efficiency) and Washington (seventh-ranked in offensive efficiency). The home-field advantage for an offense that's improved each week should be enough to trounce a Stanford defense that seems to get worse every game.
Oregon’s team total is 40.5 at both FanDuel and DraftKings. But Fanduel’s -125 odds make DraftKings the better place to wager on this prop.
Where to Bet on Stanford-Oregon Picks
Stanford-Oregon picks made 9/28/2022 at 3:09 p.m. ET