Sportsbooks Release College Football Odds for Week 5: Early Spreads Worth a Look

Doug Upstone

Monday, September 28, 2015 1:22 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 28, 2015 1:22 PM UTC

When digging into the betting odds this week from the sportsbooks, what stood out more than anything was what the numbers are compared to previous perceptions or earlier releases.

As mentioned in previous articles about this topic, it is quite interesting to go back to the Golden Nugget's early college football odds, when they released them back in late June and see what has changed or been altered going into this week. Also, what do these changes mean to those making sports picks.

In addition, there are the preconceived notions about teams before the season and as we head into the second month of the season, time to take stock on how we and oddsmakers like those from at WagerWeb, view certain matchups differently.


Northwestern -6 Point Home Favorite vs. Minnesota
As a football handicapper, not going to argue with the number the linemakers put out as it looks correct. Northwestern is 4-0 and 3-1 ATS with a very stout defense. Minnesota on the other hand is 3-1 and 1-3 ATS and each one of these victories are by three points, two against MAC teams and in OT versus Colorado State. But with my money, I find Northwestern is a mere 2-8 ATS against the Golden Gophers and the away team in this series is 13-3 ATS dating back two decades. Just sayin'.

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Virginia Tech -5 Point Home Favorite vs. Pittsburgh
People have been complaining about Notre Dame for years always being overrated, what about the Virginia Tech's defense? Once again before the season we were told DC Bud Foster will have one the best ACC defenses and might be Top 10 nationally. Instead, they have only held on opponent under 24 points (Furman -three points) and they are listed 66th nationally. Against a very average Pittsburgh squad, they are standard -5 point home favorites over the Panthers, after being -9 back in June when Pitt still had RB James Conner.

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N.C. State -5 Point Home Favorite vs. Louisville
We start to find out how good unbeaten N.C. State is this week, sitting at 4-0 SU and ATS. There before conference slate has not exactly resembled BYU's, but even I was a little surprised to see the Wolfpack as only five-point home faves over Louisville. The Cardinals only win has come against Samford last week and Bobby Petrino has not found a competent field general to lead his team. Off the top for college football picks, this seems like a pretty safe wager at this price.

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Texas A&M -7 Home Favorite vs. Mississippi State
This is another spread that appears correct in the marketplace, but one wonders about the value to sports bettors. Let's face it, Texas A&M should have lost to Arkansas if the Razorbacks had a clue how to close out games. The Aggies were out-gained and Mississippi State is a dangerous group who not only has a very good quarterback in Dak Prescott, but a defense which has not allowed more than 21 points this season, which includes a pair of SEC foes. If for some reason Texas A&M goes over a touchdown favorite, might be worth investigating further.

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Ohio State -18.5 Point Road Favorite vs. Indiana
Oddsmakers are seeing the same thing we are, an inconsistent Ohio State offensive line and herky-jerky offense that is less than dynamic. The Buckeyes schedule frankly seems to be working against them as Ohio State players are lacking in emotion and to find them at this price is either a tremendous bargain or fool's gold. It really seems it is up to Ohio State if they cover this contest and the last four against Indiana they have come up short.

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Oregon -10.5 Point Road Favorite vs. Colorado
Let this permeate for a second, since Colorado joined the Pac-12, the fewest points they have been an underdog to Oregon was 33, in four different games. But with the Ducks at 2-2 and ranked 118th in the country in points allowed at 40.7, Oregon is not thought to be trustworthy of a big number. Heck, even back in June they were -16 at the Nugget over the Buffaloes, not anymore!

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