Solid College Football Pick in Arkansas vs. Ole Miss is 'Under' 57.5

Willie Bee

Wednesday, November 4, 2015 1:07 PM GMT

Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015 1:07 PM GMT

Ole Miss is still in the hunt for the SEC Championship if the cards fall right, and they're favored on the college football odds to keep the march going against Arkansas.

Hogging the national and conference spotlight this week is the matchup between LSU and Alabama, a clash that could throw the SEC West race into a three-team deadlock. You can bet your bottom dollar the Ole Miss Rebels will be in front of their monitors watching that prime-time Saturday battle since they're one of the three teams that could be knotted up at the top of the standings.

And therein lies the first problem for Hugh Freeze and the Mississippi coaching staff this week -- keeping the Rebels focused more on their afternoon collision with the Arkansas Razorbacks instead of thinking about the Tigers or Crimson Tide.

Still in the conference championship hunt, Ole Miss tees it up with the Hogs at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, CBS broadcasting the 3:30 PM (ET) kickoff. 5Dimes started the wagering with the Rebels giving up 10 points, those college football odds now up a point to -11. The same shop opened the total at 54 and that figure has been pushed up to 57½.

Though it doesn't get much notoriety in the grand scheme of rivalries, Arkansas and Ole Miss have enjoyed a longstanding grudge against one another going back to the days before they were conference foes. Saturday marks the 63rd meeting between the two, a couple of those matchups coming in a pair of Sugar Bowls (1963, 1970). The game is also being played for the 35th-straight year.

The Razorbacks have had the upper hand recently, winning three of the last five and eight of the last 12. The pulled off one of the bigger upsets in the rivalry last season in Fayetteville where Ole Miss was ranked eighth and a 3 point chalk only to be blanked by the Hogs, 30-zip. It was Arkansas' 2nd-straight cover, and marked the sixth 'under' in the last eight collisions.

 

Pigs Reach Oxford Banged Up
Following an awful start to the season, Arkansas (4-4 straight up & against the spread) has come up with consecutive wins to even its record and breathe some life back into the team. The Razorbacks still have to win three more games to reach bowl eligibility, and it won't be easy with a roadie at LSU next week before closing out at home against Mississippi State and Missouri.

A 54-46 victory over Auburn led into last week's 63-28 drubbing of Tennessee-Martin out of the Ohio Valley Conference of the FCS. The final wasn't quite enough to cover a big 37 point spread, though Arkansas had plenty of firepower to send the match past a 61½ point total on its own.

The Hogs  arrive in Oxford missing a few key players with others iffy at this point to play because of injuries. They lost running back Rawleigh Williams (neck) in the quadruple overtime win over Auburn. It's also looking as if leading receiver Drew Morgan will be out after the junior suffered a shoulder injury last week vs. the Skyhawks.

 

Bye Week Ahead For The Rebels
Auburn gave Mississippi (7-2 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) fits last week before the Rebels put the game away behind Chad Kelly's right arm. The junior overcame a couple of interceptions to pass for a season-high 381 yards, his 21-yard scoring strike to favorite target Laquon Treadwell in the fourth quarter providing a little breathing room in the 27-19 triumph that pushed an 8 point spread on the college football odds.

The key to victory was the defense stiffening to hold Auburn to three short field goals in the second half. Injuries to a few defensive backups could mean Freeze has to leave his starters in a little longer this week. Safety Tony Conner has missed a few games with a knee injury and is questionable once again, as are cornerback Kailo Moore and linebacker Tayler Polk.

A 60% chance of showers is in the Oxford forecast for Saturday, the thermometer only reaching around what the current game total is. I like the movement up here on the total, which is why I'm playing the 'under' for my free college football pick.

College Football Pick: Under 57½ at 5Dimes

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