Significant Injuries Affecting Betting Movements in Week 6

reporting injuries for cfb picks

Kevin Stott

Saturday, October 7, 2017 1:12 PM GMT

Saturday, Oct. 7, 2017 1:12 PM GMT

Nothing moves bettors’ and linemakers’ perceptions in football Point Spreads like injuries to starting Quarterbacks, be it in the NFL or collegiate ranks where games can be taken off the betting board all week or end up having some significant line movements, depending on the backups(s) and the particular situations.

Significant QB Injuries Affecting Betting Movements For Several Key Teams in Current NCAA Football Market

When Florida State watched QB Deondre Francois go down with a Knee injury in the Seminoles 24-7 loss to #1 Alabama in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game on Sept. 2 at the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, 24-7 (ALA -7½, 51), Head Coach Jimbo Fisher and the Seminoles not only saw their chances of reaching the 2018 CFP Playoffs on New Year’s Day (Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl) go out the window, but the loss of the team’s starting QB—always the biggest position where Injuries (or the occasional Suspension) move sportsbooks’ lines and Totals—also affected other things in the sports betting marketplace including FSU’s Regular Season Win Team Total, its’ 2018 CFP Championship odds (152/1 to win 2018 CFP Championship, Heritage), and obviously, Point Spreads in future Seminoles games. The Francois injury also instantly made James Blackman the FSU starting QB and couldn’t help but change the mindset of a young team which envisioned playing an entire year with the 6-1, 205-pound 2016 ACC Rookie of the Year Francois at the helm.

 

With the Seminoles (1-2 SU)—who have only played three games so far thanks to Hurricane Irma and a Cancellation (ULM, Week 2) and a Postponement (Miami (Fla) (80/1 to win 2018 CFP Championship, 5Dimes), Week 3, game played on Saturday in Week 6—losing in Week 4 in ACC play to now #25 NC State, dreams of an FBS Division I championship are gone and with Blackman running the Seminoles Offense and not the injured Francois, many bettors are fading the Noles, as we see this weekend with the #13 Hurricanes (3-0 SU into FSU) being as high as 3½-point Favorites (-105, Bovada) now after FSU opened up as small 1-point chalks Sunday (BetOnline). For some context, and to show how much this specific Francois Injury has affected perceptions of the Point Spread in Saturday’s Florida Cup, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook here in a very somber but so strong Sin City opened up the Seminoles as huge 10-point chalks in its 2017 Games of the Year Futures market for this showdown in Tallahassee, meaning the loss of the starting QB, the 2 Losses SU and the rash of other FSU injuries—including six Offensive Linemen, four Wide Receivers and three Linebackers—have equated to (at least) a monter 13½-point swing in the three months from July 9 to Oct. 7.

Let’s look at four other significant Injuries in FBS at the QB spot and speculate how much these teams’ missing their starters are not only affecting Point Spreads and their teams chances of potentially reaching the CFP Playoffs where warranted.


Texas A&M, Iowa State, Maryland and Notre Dame Games Also Currently Being Affected By Quarterback Injuries

Some other Power Five conference teams (and an Independent) who are currently experiencing Injury problems are the SEC’s Texas A&M, the Big 12’s Iowa State, the Big Ten’s Maryland and Notre Dame. The Aggies (4-1 SU, 2-2-1 ATS) saw starting QB Nick Starkel (Broken Ankle) get hurt in the 4th Quarter of its opening weekend win against UCLA, requiring surgery and with the team’s other backup QB, Jake Hubenak also injured (Shoulder), Texas A&M (152/1 to win 2018 CFP Championship, Heritage) has had to turn to third-string Freshman Kellen Mond (69-126, 808 yards, 6 TDs, 2 INTs) to be QB and odds in A&M games have obviously been affected.

In Week 6, the Aggies had Hubenak listed as Questionable against Jalen Hurts and #1 Alabama in College Station in an SEC clash which has seen the Point Spread rise from (Alabama minus) 22 to 27 (Bovada) on Saturday night (ESPN, 7:15 pm ET). The SuperBook opened the Crimson Tide (+258 to win 2018 CFP Championship, BetDSI) as 15-point Road Favorites in its 2017 renowned GoTY odds, meaning even with the loss of Starkel and the question marks surrounding the QB position for A&M, the number is about the same which equates to Bama being better than perceptions. Alabama (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) versus a third-string Freshman QB (if Hubenak can’t go) seems like about 30 when you actually put it into words, Site be damned.

Iowa State also has a QB problem with Jacob Park (Undisclosed Physical Problems, Leave of Absence) expected to miss the Cyclones Big 8 encounter with Heisman Trophy-candidate Baker Mayfield and #3 Oklahoma in Norman on Saturday in a game which has seen the line go from Sooners (open) - 27 all the way up to as high as 31 in some sportsbooks Offshore (BookMaker, BetDSI, Just Bet). Park’s backup at Iowa State (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) is redshirt Freshman Zeb Noland but having him make his starting debut at Oklahoma in this spot seems like asking for trouble and Iowa State Head Coach Matt Campbell (10-5 ATS) may go with LB-turned-QB Joel Laning or Kyle Kempt against the Sooners (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) who are still in the CFP picture and will likely eliminate the Cyclones from it for good by handing them their third Loss here (Iowa, Texas).

Sitting at 3-1 SU (as well as 3-1 ATS), the Big Ten’s Maryland (500/1 to win 2018 CFP Championship, 5Dimes) has impressed and sort of remain in the FBS-CFP hunt although with one Loss (UCF) and four nightmarish games coming up on the Regular Season schedule (# 10 Ohio State, #9 Wisconsin, #7 Michigan, #4 Penn State), it seems the Terrapins QB problems might not matter as much as that scary reality of having to play four teams in the Top 10 in the next eight weeks. Send help. With both starter Tyrell Pigrome (Knee, Texas game, 14.58 YDS/A) and Kasim Hill (ACL, UCF game; 10.95 YDS/A) hurt and Out for the Season for 2nd-year Head Coach DJ Durkin (7-9 ATS) and upstart Maryland, sophomore Max Bortenschlager (34-56, 39 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs, 5.18 YDS/A) has gotten the call and against the Buckeyes in Columbus in Week 6 on Saturday, the number has stayed fairly static, opening at (OSU minus) 31 and dropping a ½ to 1 point at most shops.

And the least serious of all of these current QB Injuries, signal caller for #21 Notre Dame (4-1 SU/ATS), Brandon Wimbush (Right Foot), was wearing a walking boot in the Fighting Irish’s practice in Thursday after a precautionary MRI showed no structural or ligament damage to the 228-pound Junior, with Golden Domers Head Coach Brian Kelly (45-46-4 ATS) having backup Ian Book take most of the snaps in practice. The Wimbush injury—which allegedly happened in the Miami Ohio game last weekend—hasn’t affected the Line much in the Week 6 Notre Dame-North Carolina game from South Bend with the Fighting Irish (+10,250 to win 2018 CFP Championship, Heritage) opening up as 14½-point Home Favorites and the line now at a high of 15 (Pinnacle, Bovada).

 

 

NCAAF WEEK 6 QB INJURY-RELATED FADE PICK: Alabama First Half
Best Line is at Bookmaker -15½ 

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