Side with NCAAF Betting Public & Pick Ohio St. over Indiana

Darin Zank

Wednesday, November 19, 2014 2:42 PM GMT

Wednesday, Nov. 19, 2014 2:42 PM GMT

Before placing your Week 13 NCAAF pick know that althought Ohio State owns the rivalry with Indiana, winning the last 19 meetings, the Hoosiers have taken the cash the last 3 times they've met. 

Hoosiers-Buckeyes Betting Odds
Ohio State opened at right around -33 over Indiana at most CFB betting shops, then got bumped up to -34 and -35. Those who believe in miracles could also place their College Football picks on the Hoosiers on the moneyline at +8500 at Sport Bet.

 

Hoosiers-Buckeyes: The Match-Up
Ohio State opened this season, with back-up quarterback JT Barrett playing in place of the injured Braxton Miller, with a win over Navy, then got upset at home by Virginia Tech 35-21. Since then, though, the Buckeyes have reeled off eight wins in a row. Two weeks ago OSU won a big one at Michigan State 49-37, and last week it won at Minnesota 31-24.

The Buckeyes, as 12-point favorites, grabbed an early 14-0 lead on the Gophers, but allowed Minnesota to tie the score at 14-14. Ohio State then scored the next 17 points of the game to take a 31-14 lead with 10 minutes left, but gave up the cover when the Gophers scored the last 10 points.

The Bucks outgained Minnesota 489-303, as Barrett accounted for 389 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns.

At 9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS and 6-0 in conference play the Buckeyes lead the East Division by a game and a tiebreaker over Michigan State, and remain in the running for a spot in that college football championship playoff.

Indiana had some hopes heading into this season of breaking a six-season bowl drought. But the depletion of personnel at the quarterback position has cost the Hoosiers immensely. So at 3-7 SU, 2-7 ATS and 0-6 in conference play Indiana is just playing for pride at the moment.

IU started this season 3-2, with an upset victory at Missouri. But the Hoosiers then lost starting QB Nate Sudfeld for the season to injury, and subsequently have lost their last five games in a row, going 0-4-1 ATS. Indiana lost 45-29 at Iowa, 56-17 against Michigan State, 34-10 at Michigan, 13-7 at home to Penn State and, last week, at Rutgers 45-23.

The Hoosiers actually led the Scarlet Knights at the half last week 13-10 but lost the second half 35-10. Indiana outgained Rutgers 473-429, as running back Tevin Coleman went off for 307 yards, but the Hoosiers also committed three turnovers and nine penalties and went just 1-for-15 on third downs.

So in four games vs. common opponents this season (Maryland, Rutgers, Penn State and Michigan State) the Buckeyes are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, while Indiana is 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS.

 

Hoosiers-Buckeyes Recent History
Ohio State, as mentioned above, has won the last 19 games in this series, but Indiana has covered the number each of the last three seasons. Three years ago the Hoosiers lost at Columbus 34-20, but covered as four-touchdown road dogs. Two years ago IU gave the Buckeyes a scare before falling 52-49 but covered as 19-point home dogs. And last year, while the Hoosiers lost at the Horseshoe 42-14, they picked up a back-door cover as 33-point underdogs on College Football odds.

Ohio State has outgained Indiana each of those last three meetings, but only by a 485-418 yards-per-game margin.

Last year, though, the Buckeyes led 42-0 before the Hoosiers scored two touchdowns in garbage time.

 

Hoosiers-Buckeyes Betting Trends
Indiana is 5-5 on the totals this season, as Hoosiers games have averaged 59 points.

Ohio State is 8-2 on the totals, as Buckeyes games have averaged 67 points.

 

Hoosiers-Buckeyes Free Pick
Indiana, broken down offensively to one-dimensionality by the injury at quarterback, might not score in this game. Can Ohio State toss a shutout and score 35 points? Absolutely. So while we don't like going along with the betting public, we do think the Buckeyes will win this game by enough to cover.

Free College Football Pick: Ohio State -34 at BookMaker

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