Sharp NCAAF Pick is Ohio +4.0 over Northern Illinois

Ross Benjamin

Monday, November 17, 2014 1:32 PM GMT

Our college football betting guru comes off another successful 3-1 week. He’s now 28-12 (70%) for the season and focuses now on Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Ohio Bobcats for this Week 13 free pick.

Tuesday Night Football in the MAC
The Ohio Bobcats will host the Northern Illinois Huskies on Tuesday at Peden Stadium in Athens, and the opening kickoff is slated for 8:00 PM ET. The game will be aired on ESPNU. According to the College Football betting odds at BetOnline, Northern Illinois is a 4.0 point favorite, and there was no posted total at the time of this writing. The weather forecast calls for a game time temperature of about 20-degrees, winds of 10 to 15 miles per hour, and 30% chance of snow flurries. These teams haven’t met since the 2011 MAC Championship game when Northern Illinois defeated Ohio 23-20.

 

Controlling their own Destiny
Northern Illinois is 8-2 overall including 5-1 in the MAC, leads the West Division, and by winning their final two games will play in the conference championship game. The task certainly won’t be easy starting with this game versus the Bobcats, and next week at Western Michigan who is also 5-1 in the MAC West. The Huskies are a disciplined team that just doesn’t beat themselves. They’ve committed only 7 turnovers in their first 10-games of the season. The Huskies have also gone 4-1 on the road this season, and their only loss came at Arkansas. They also had road wins over Northwestern who just upset Notre Dame this past Saturday, in addition to at UNLV. The Huskies have seen each of their last 3-games go under the total. They will enter this contest riding a 4-game winning streak.

 

Tough at Home
Ohio has gone a stellar 4-1 SU&ATS at home this season, and they’ve seen each of their previous 4-games at Peden Stadium go under the total. This will be the Bobcats final home game of the season, and they need at least 1-win in their final 2-games to become bowl eligible. They’re coming off a dominating 37-14 home win over Buffalo in their previous game 2-weeks ago. They held the Bulls to just 184-yards of total offense. That’s the same Buffalo team that hung up 55-points on Akron last week.

 

Final Analysis
The Ohio Bobcats have gone 26-6 in their last 32 home games, and during that time they’re a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS as home underdog. Northern Illinois is coming off a huge win over Toledo in their previous game which put them in the driver’s seat in the MAC West, and they have a win or take all game versus Western Michigan coming up in their season finale. This looks to be a proverbial flat spot for the Huskies. This has all the earmarks of a closely contested game that goes down to the wire.  I have an early small lean on the home team in this spot, and that’s what I’m advising for a College Football pick.

Free College Football Pick: Ohio +4.0 over Northern Illinois at BookMaker