Sept. 12th & 13th Top-Value College Football Picks

Willie Bee

Friday, September 12, 2014 3:07 PM GMT

Friday, Sep. 12, 2014 3:07 PM GMT

The Baylor Bears shuffle off to Buffalo with some injury issues and a big spread to cover on Friday night, just one of the games we're previewing with free picks for this weekend.

Baylor vs. Buffalo
Art Briles and the Baylor Bears didn't really score a lot of style points in beginning the season with a couple of routs of SMU and Northwestern State.  The Bears amassed nearly 1,300 yards of offense and 115 points in the cakewalks, but only managed to move up a couple of places in the two polls thanks to losses by Michigan State and South Carolina who were ranked ahead of Baylor in the preseason polls.

Baylor should have another win coming this Friday night (8 PM, ESPN) in Buffalo against the Bulls, but the question begs just how long Briles will keep his foot on the gas with conference road tilts at Iowa State and Texas ahead?

Current wagering numbers say Briles should go long enough to cover a 5-TD spread with the Bears listed at -35 at most shops on SBR's love college football odds.  The books are also in agreement on a 69.5 point total.

The spread started at -32 before jumping up a field goal on word Bryce Petty would play Friday.  Petty missed last Saturday's 70-6 romp vs. the Demons with a bruised lower back he suffered in Week 1's 45-0 blanking vs. the Mustangs, and with an off week coming up before the Big 12 schedule begins, both he and Briles will want to at least get a little work in beforehand.

Buffalo's defense shouldn't provide much resistance against the high-octane Baylor offense whether the senior Petty or sophomore Seth Russell is directing the attack.  The Bulls should show a little more offensively than the Bears have seen so far, and while I do like the Bears to win big, my free pick is instead going to be on the final shooting past the total.

My Free College Football Pick: Baylor-Buffalo Over 69.5 at Pinnacle

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Missouri vs. UCF: Tigers Take Aim At 3-0 Start, Host Central Florida
One of the early kickoffs Saturday takes place at Missouri where the Tigers welcome the Central Florida Knights to Columbia.  The SEC Network will carry the broadcast starting at noon (ET), and the hosts are 10 point chalk with 54 for the scoreboard mark.

Missouri is coming off a relatively easy 49-24 win at Toledo last Saturday, but I wasn't all that impressed by the Tigers despite the fact they were only laying 3.5 in the affair.  The Rockets made way too many mistakes early, and Missouri is facing a UCF team this week that has had a week off since losing a close one in Dublin to Penn State.

Gary Pinkel's club did take advantage of the Toledo errors, however, and I'm expecting a better all-around performance this time.  Central Florida lost as a small home favorite when the teams met in Orlando two years ago, and the Knights won't be able to cover as road 'dogs in Saturday's tilt.

My Free College Football Pick: Missouri -10

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Kansas vs. Duke: Too Bad They're Not On The Hardwood
Seeing the Kansas Jayhawks and Duke Blue Devils on the slate only makes me anxious when making College Basketball picks. Should they meet on the hardwood this season, it's going to have to come in the NCAA Tournament next March, so for now we'll have to be satisfied with just the second gridiron collision ever between these clubs.

Saturday's kickoff in Durham is set for 3:30 PM (ET), and Blue Devils are laying 14 after starting as 17 point favorites, and the College Football odds total has inched up from 54 to 55.5 points.

While both teams are undefeated so far, that doesn't mean we're going to see high-caliber football at Wallace Wade Stadium. Kansas opened with a 34-28 win over Southeast Missouri State, almost forgetting to play the fourth quarter in letting the Redhawks climb back in the game and easily beat the 24-point spread.  Duke also couldn't cover the 18 point line at Troy, just missing with a 34-17 decision.

The total may be going up, but I'm going the other direction with a play on the 'under' for my free College Football pick.  

My Free College Football Pick: Kansas-Duke Under 55.5

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Willie Bee's College Football Handicapping Record for the Season: 4-5 (-1.5)

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