SEC Week 7 Overview: Missouri-Alabama Equals Offense Galore

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, October 9, 2018 1:00 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 9, 2018 1:00 PM UTC

Points aplenty is expected when Alabama takes on QB Drew Lock and the Missouri Tigers Saturday. Free pick, betting preview, and a glance at all the SEC Week 7 action here. 

SEC Spotlight: Missouri at No. 1 Alabama (-28)Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, on ESPNFree NCAAF Pick: ‘Over’Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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It’s quite rare when a Nick Saban-led offense is better than his defense. That’s the case with the 2018 edition of Alabama (6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS) behind QB sensation Tua Tagovailoa. The Heisman favorite’s stats are off the charts. Tagovailoa owns a unheard of 258.4 passer rating with 18 TDs, no picks, and 1,495 yards on 76-of-101 tosses. That’s a 75.2 percent completion percentage for those without a calculator handy. Needless to say points pile up with the southpaw signal-caller under center. In nine career games attempting 10 passes or more, the Crimson Tide post 51.8 per outing. Yikes.

The key to betting the side or total in this matchup is whether Missouri (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) can hang more than expected on the Alabama defense. The Tigers have scored more than projected in every game this season, playing some tough unit’s along the way (Georgia, at South Carolina, at Purdue).

The difference is the maturation of NFL-bound senior Drew Lock under center. The offense is averaging 85.0 plays per contest, as head coach Barry Odom hustles possession as fast as possible to allow his best playmaker opportunities.

Here’s a trend worth noting concerning the current passing game and pace: the ‘over’ is a perfect 9-0 when Lock starts under center against a defense yielding fewer than 180 passing yards per contest. A 70.8 combined score is sailing past a 60.2 average total in this situation. In four going off a double-digit underdog, opponents post 46.8 points per game to 21.2 for Mizzou.

The Tigers, in fact, surrender 50.0 per tilt in their last five catching 10 or more on the college football oddsboard. No reason to believe on of the most efficient offenses in recent memory won’t fly past this average. ‘Bama flirts with 60, and Lock finds the end zone a couple of times, to send this lopsided matchup ‘over’ the odssmakers’ total.

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Handshakes for the winners! 🤝#OutworkYesterday#RollTide pic.twitter.com/n5ULgBbzus

— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) 7 de outubro de 2018
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Vanderbilt’s (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) coach Derek Mason has squared off against 15 SEC defenses yielding fewer than three touchdowns an outing. The Commodores average 11.7 points per game, eclipsing 16 points just twice. The ‘under’ is 11-4 (73.3 percent) overall. Florida (5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS) surrenders 14.8 points per tilt.

Around the SEC (all games on Saturday):


Tennessee at No. 21 Auburn (-16.5), noon ET, on SEC Network
Since 2012, Auburn (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS) is just 2-8 ATS hosting unranked SEC foes at Jordan-Hare Stadium, failing to cover a -15.2 average line by 9.4 points per game.

No. 2 Georgia (-7) at No. 13 LSU, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Since 2006, the ‘under’ is 17-6-2 (73.9 percent) when LSU (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) kicks off an underdog in SEC ranked action. The Tigers average 16.2 points per game, putting up more than 23 points once in the last 15 tilts (41-44 at Georgia, 2013).

No. 22 Texas A&M (-2) at South Carolina, 3:30 p.m. ET, on SEC Network
Texas A&M (4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS) is 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in its last seven games ranked in the AP Poll, including losing outright as a 7.5- and 10.5-point favorite. South Carolina (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS), meanwhile, is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS as a short-priced underdog of a touchdown or less since QB Jake Bentley took over as starter in October 2016.

Ole Miss (-6.5) at Arkansas, 7:30 p.m. ET, on SEC Network
One has to go back to November 2017 to uncover the last time Ole Miss (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) kicked off road chalk in an SEC contest. Since 2008, the ‘under’ is 12-4-1 (75 percent) under these conditions, for what it’s worth.

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