SEC Week 5 Overview: Ole Miss-LSU Brawl in Magnolia Bowl

Tuesday, September 25, 2018 4:10 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 25, 2018 4:10 PM UTC

Ole Miss has a history of keeping it close of late when projected to get blown out by LSU in their annual series. See what we mean, and check out other betting tidbits for all the SEC Week 5 action here. 

SEC Spotlight: Ole Miss at No. 5 LSU (-11.5)Saturday, 9 p.m. ET, on ESPNFree NCAAF Pick: Ole Miss +11.5Bets Line Offered: Pinnacle

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3447801, "sportsbooksIds":[238,93,92,19,1096], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Ole Miss (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) lost the last two matchups versus LSU (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) by 16 and 17 points respectively, but relish the prospects of catching double-digits on the college football oddsboard. Since 1980, the Rebels are 14-6 ATS when gifted more than a touchdown at kickoff in the Magnolia Bowl rivalry.

This is a battle between two wildly different defenses in terms of efficiency. Ole Miss allows just 5.3 yards per play, as opposed to 5.0 for LSU. However, the Rebels have surrendered nearly double the points, allowing 147 altogether. The Tigers, meanwhile, have allowed 59 through four games.

The key to handicapping this matchup is whether the Tigers can separate from the Rebels on offense. The defense will surely do its part. LSU averages only 29.4 points per game since head coach Ed Orgeron took over for Les Miles in September 2016.

The Tigers tends to keep high-scoring squads at bay during Orgeron’s tenure, but seldom run away in any contest. The Tigers have squared off against nine teams posting more than 38 points per game on the season. The ‘under’ has cashed in eight by a healthy 8.9 average. When LSU goes off the betting favorite, the final combined score is 33.2 to 17.5. The Rebels enter scoring 42.0 a night.

Ole Miss will consider it a good game if it reaches 20 points against one of the nation’s toughest defense. Eventually, the Rebels D will quit coughing up big plays. The yards per play numbers justify much fewer points, and reversion to the mean will take hold at some point in the season.

We’re banking on Ole Miss staying within the number here, and we’re not alone. The number has dropped nearly two points against LSU since the opener, despite receiving 63 percent of bets across the majority of online sportsbooks. Wise guys are moving in. The number may come back a little closer to the initial offer closer to game time, so hold tight when taking the points.

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

The weather wasn't ideal, but the Rebels made some big plays on both sides of the ball in Saturday's win over Kent State.

Relive some of those big moments. ⬇️ #HottyToddy 🔵🔴 pic.twitter.com/nCHPaFIWAt

— Ole Miss Football (@OleMissFB) 24 de setembro de 2018
\n"}[/]

Around the SEC (All Games Saturday)

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (-20.5), Saturday, noon ET, at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (ESPN): Arkansas (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) has kicked off a double-digit underdog four other times in the Southwest Classic during the last 35 years, including catching 24 at Texas A&M (2-2 SU, 4-0 ATS) in a narrow 13-3 defeat in 1991. During this span (21 games) the Hogs have lost by more than three touchdowns once. This one is always closer than advertised.


Louisiana-Lafayette at No. 1 Alabama (-49), noon ET, on SEC Network: This is the most points Alabama ( 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) has ever laid behind head coach Nick Saban, just topping the 48.5 points it gifted FCS Mercer in 2017. The ‘under’ is 4-1 when Saban gives more than 30 points, for what it’s worth. Mercy rule.

Tennessee at No. 2 Georgia (-31.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, on CBS: Since 1980, Georgia (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) has never gifted more than 17.5 points to Tennessee (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS). The Bulldogs, in fact, are 0-5 ATS when gifting 12 or more in the series in this span.

Southern Miss at No. 10 Auburn (-28), 4 p.m. ET, on SEC Network: Over the last 20 years, ranked SEC teams hold Conference USA opponents to just 12.1 points per game on their home turf.

Tennessee State at Vanderbilt (OFF), 4 p.m. ET, on SEC Network: Vanderbilt (2-2 SUM 3-1 ATS) head coach Derek Mason is 0-5 ATS hosting FCS competition in his tenure, failing to cover a -31.2 point line by 10.4 points per game. Careful.

Florida at No. 23 Mississippi State (-7.5), 6 p.m. ET, on ESPN: Florida (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) is 5-17 SU and 8-13-1 ATS in its last 22 against ranked competition. The Gators post 18.2 points per game, yet surrender 29.2 overall. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

South Carolina at No. 17 Kentucky (-1.5), 7:30 p.m. ET, on SEC Network: Kentucky (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) cracked the AP Top 25 for the first time since 2007 this week. It’s a position they’ve has trouble maintaining in conference, however. The Wildcats are 5-14 SU and 6-13 versus SEC foes in their last 19 when ranked

comment here