SEC Week 3 Overview: Defense to Dominate LSU-Auburn Clash

LSU Tigers vs Auburn Tigers

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, September 11, 2018 4:32 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 11, 2018 4:32 PM UTC

No. 12 LSU and No. 7 Aubun clash at Jordan-Hare Stadium Satruday in which will surely be a hard-hitting, defensive slugfest. Other SEC action sees Alabama kicking off with its highest game total ever against a porous Ole Miss squad, and Missouri in a points-getting spot as road chalk at Purdue. 

SEC Spotlight: No. 12 LSU at No. 7 Auburn (-9.5)Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, on CBSFree NCAAF Pick: ‘Under’ 45Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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Expect a physical SEC West bruiser game as rivals No. 12 LSU (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) and No. 7 Auburn (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) clash at Jordan-Hare Stadium Saturday in the conference opener for each. The Fighting Tigers have a slight edge in the modern-day series, going 16-14 SU and ATS in the last 30 meetings. The home team has proven dominant recently with 16 of the last 18 victors defending their home turf. Close, wild games are typical. Seventeen have finished within a touchdown.

The Auburn offense tends to struggle in the series. Since 2000, it has put up more than 24 points once, averaging just 18.2 points per game. In five games the Tigers kick off betting favorites, the number inches up to 21.0 per tilt. Past results indicate Auburn QB Jared Stidham will have to have a special game to find the end zone multiple times against an always-stout LSU defense.

The Fighting Tigers unit is elite. Its allowing 254.0 total yards per game through two against ranked Miami (FL) (33-17) and FCS Southeastern Louisiana (31-0). The Auburn unit may be just as good. Led by former LSU coordinator Kevin Steele, it is armed with DT Derrick Brown, S Daniel Thomas, and DE Marlon Davidson, each preseason All-SEC selections. The Tigers yield 312.5 total yards and 12.5 points per game with wins against ranked Washington (21-16) and FCS Alabama State (63-9).

The LSU offense is loaded with youth and inexperience. Expect it to perform badly in its first road SEC test. Reaching two touchdowns will be a small victory. Auburn wins 24-14. Pick the ‘under’

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Swarm & Attack!#WarEagle pic.twitter.com/z1PitV7mf9

— Auburn Football (@AuburnFootball) 10 de setembro de 2018
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Around the SEC (All Games Saturday)

Murray State at Kentucky (OFF), noon ET, on SEC Network
Look for Kentucky (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) to keep rolling after its first win over Florida since 1986. It is 11-1 SU and 8-4 ATS as a favorite following an underdog win the previous week. As a double-digit favorite, the Wildcats average 40.0 points per game in this spot.

UTEP at Tennessee (-30), noon ET, on SEC Network
Since 2000, Tennessee (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) averages 48.6 points per game when favored by more than four touchdowns. This includes a 59-3 shellacking of FCS East Tennessee State last weekend.

Vanderbilt at No. 8 Notre Dame (-14.5), 2:30 p.m. ET, on NBC
In right road tests against ranked opponents, Vanderbilt (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) is 0-8 SU behind coach Derek Mason, losing by 19.5 points per game. It is 5-1 ATS catching 20 points or more and 0-2 getting fewer. Line appears a tad light here.

North Texas at Arkansas (-7), 4 p.m. ET, on SEC Network
Three other times Arkansas (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) has kicked off against Sun Belt opponents with a single-digit line. Each game finished within a touchdown. Careful Hogs backers.

Colorado State at Florida (-20), 4 p.m. ET, on SEC Network
Since 2010, the ‘over’ is 8-1 when an unranked Florida (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) squad lays 17 points or more in a game. A 55.8 average final score tops a 52.9 total by 9.7 points per game.

No. 1 Alabama (-20.5) at Ole Miss, 7 p.m. ET, on ESPN
The 71 game total is the highest ever for an Alabama (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) game. The ‘under’ is 16-8 under head coach Nick Saban when the Crimson Tide kick off with a total of 55.5 or more.

Middle Tennessee at No. 3 Georgia (-31.5), 7:15 p.m. ET, on ESPN2
Georgia (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) is 1-5 ATS against Conference USA opponents, failing to cover a 21.1 average line by 7.6 points per game.

Louisiana at No. 16 Mississippi State (-32), 7:30 p.m. ET, on SEC Network
Since 2010, the ‘over’ is 11-6-1 when Mississippi State (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) lays three touchdowns or more in a game, the Bulldogs posting 43.1 points per game.

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An ELITE performance 💪

👀 @H_Kylin#HailState🐶 #ChampionshipStandard pic.twitter.com/tWzWfwgnWA

— MSU Football 🏈 (@HailStateFB) 11 de setembro de 2018
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Missouri (-7) at Purdue, 7:30 p.m. ET, on BTN
Last season, QB Drew Lock led Missouri (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) to 52 (UConn), 45 Vanderbilt), and 48 (Arkansas) points in three games as road chalk. Does Purdue have the firepower to keep up? Nah.

Marshall at South Carolina (-13), 7:30 p.m. ET, on ESPNU
South Carolina (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) is 1-4 ATS laying 5 points or more to non-Power 5 opponents under head coach Will Muschamp. Opponents are scoring 7.3 points per game more than projected, surpassing their team total in each cover.

UL Monroe at Texas A&M (-26.5), 7:30 p.m. ET, on SEC Network
Texas A&M (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine matchups hosting Sun Belt opponents. The Aggies come up 5.7 points shy of a -27.6 average line. They are 0-5-1 ATS laying more than 23 points.

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