SEC Week 13 Overview: Iron Bowl 'Under' Is Solid Lock

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, November 20, 2018 1:17 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 20, 2018 1:17 PM UTC

The second-largest spread in modern Iron Bowl history seperates Auburn and top-ranked Alabama in 2018. Why flirt with a pick on the side when the 'under" presents value? We explain. 

SEC Spotlight: Auburn at No. 1 Alabama (-24.5)Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)Free NCAAF Pick: ‘Under’Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3447718, "sportsbooksIds":[19,1096,238,180,169], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Oddsmakers opened Alabama (11-0 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) touchdown favorite in the Iron Bowl in Games of the Year lines in May, the number sinking to -13 at many outlets prior to Week 1. The line reopened at -24 in favor of the Crimson Tide Sunday, the second largest spread in the rivalry in modern history. Auburn (7-4 SU, 4-7 ATS) caught 34 points in an embarrassing 49-0 defeat in 2012.

Can the Tigers make this meeting more competitive? Their defense will be the key factor. The unit’s 0.237 points per play ranks as the seventh most efficient nationally, and hasn’t allowed more than 30 points to an opponent all year. Tennessee, which benefitted from a defensive touchdown in its Week 7 upset (30-24), is the only opponent to score more than it averaged for the season headed into the matchup. The Crimson Tide put up 48.7 points per game and own the second top scoring offense behind Oklahoma (49.5).

Then there is the Alabama defense—head coach Nick Saban’s bread and butter. It ranks in the top 10 in nearly every key metric nationally, including efficiency at 0.190 points per play. If recent trends hold up, the visitors will be lucky to put up 10 points. Since the start of last Saban’s squad yields 11.7 points per game to SEC foes when laying double digits on the college football oddsboard.

Saban is 7-4 SU and 5-6 ATS in the Iron Bowl, but is in no danger of losing this round. The 2018 team is arguably his best ever and will dominate on both sides of the ball. Five times Alabama has gifted two touchdowns or more in this span, the Tigers have never scored more than 14 points in any contest, averaging a lowly 183.0 total yards. This will likely be ugly. Pick ‘under’ for you best bet.

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

8⃣1⃣ Straight. #RollTide pic.twitter.com/U6OPVmGMvI

— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) 17 de novembro de 2018
\n"}[/]

All Games Saturday (Unless Noted)

No. 22 Mississippi State (-11) at Ole Miss, Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET, on ESPN: Since 1980, Ole Miss (5-6 SU, 3-8 ATS) has kicked off the Egg Bowl catching more than a touchdown five times. It won three outright (1981, 1985, and 2017). Mississippi State (7-4 SU, 7-3-1 ATS), which allows 12.8 points per game, has allowed only one opponents (Kentucky) to reach its projected team total this season. As of publication, the lines suggest the Rebels will score 23 points.

Arkansas at Missouri (-22.5), Friday, 2:30 p.m. ET, on CBS: The -22.5 points are the most Missouri (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) has ever laid in an SEC contest. Arkansas (2-9 SU, 6-5 ATS), meanwhile, allows 42.0 points per game when catching more than 20 points on the board, including 34 (Auburn), 65 (Alabama), and 52 (Mississippi St.) in 2018.

Georgia Tech at No. 5 Georgia (-17), noon ET, on SEC Network: In the last four decades, a ranked Georgia (10-1 SU, 6-5 ATS) team has hosted an unranked Georgia Tech squad four times. The Bulldogs won each by 38 (1994), 14 (2007), 32 (2012), and 31 (2017) points.

No. 13 Florida (-5.5) at Florida State, noon ET, on ESPN: Florida (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) is 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS when laying more than a field goal in the Sunshine Showdown since 1980. The Gators are covering a -9.8 average spread by a whopping 15.5 points per game.

Tennessee at Vanderbilt (-3.5), 4 p.m. ET, on SEC Network: This is just the fourth time since 1980 Tennessee (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) is catching points in its annual rivalry against Vanderbilt (5-6, 7-4 ATS). The Volunteers have dropped five of the last six against the spread.

South Carolina at No. 2 Clemson (-26), 7 p.m. ET, on ESPN: The ‘under’ has hit in eight of 10 games when South Carolina (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) goes off a road underdog behind head coach Will Muschamp. The margin is a healthy 10.9 points with the Gamecocks averaging a measly 15.5 points per game.

No. 17 Kentucky (-17.5) at Louisville, 7 p.m. ET, on ESPN2: This is just the third time in the modern era Kentucky (8-3 SU, 4-7 ATS) has kicked off road chalk in Louisville (2-9 SU, 1-11 ATS). The Cardinals, meanwhile, are proving the most overvalued team this season, coming up 16.1 point shy of a 6.2 average line thus far.

No. 8 LSU at Texas A&M (-2.5), 7:30 p.m. ET, on SEC Network: LSU (9-2 SU, 5-6 ATS) has topped the number just one time against five unranked opponents in 2018. Texas A&M (7-4 SU, 9-2 ATS), on the other hand, is a perfect 6-0 ATS in College Station behind first-year head coach Jimbo Fisher.

comment here