SEC Week 10 Overview: Defense to Dominate in Georgia-Kentucky Due

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, October 30, 2018 12:55 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 30, 2018 12:55 PM UTC

The SEC East is up for grabs in a rare ranked clash between No. 6 Georgia and No. 11 Kentucky. Defense will be the difference-maker in any college football pick. Here’s why we’re betting the under.

SEC Spotlight: No. 6 Georgia (-9.5) at No. 11 KentuckySaturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, on CBSFree NCAAF Pick: ‘Under’Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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This is just the fourth time in history both Georgia (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) and Kentucky (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) are ranked in the AP poll entering their annual series at Kroger Field. The outcome means a lot, too. The winner will control the SEC East and claim a spot in the conference championship clash in Atlanta.

The Wildcats are coming off an ugly 15-14 win at Missouri, in which they scored 12 unanswered points in the fourth quarter for a comeback win. Catching 7 points on the college football oddsboard, it was the fourth outright upset for head coach Mark Stoops this season. Can they shock again Saturday? “We’re going to need to play our best football game of the year against Georgia,” Stoops proclaimed in the build up.

The Bulldogs romped 36-17 on neutral soil against rivals Florida last Saturday, exploding for 23 second-half points. It was the second most points ever after the half for head coach Kirby Smart against an SEC foe.

Smart is 8-6 SU and 10-4 ATS versus ranked opponents. Going 2-3 SU and ATS in true road games, the typically stout defense is thrashed for 31.4 points and 414.8 yards per game. The Kentucky offense is the weakest of any, however.

The Wildcats average 17.8 points per game all-time behind Stoops when squaring off against an SEC defense surrendering fewer than 405 yards per game. This includes 27 (Florida), 28 (Mississippi St.), 24 (South Carolina), and 14 (Texas A&M) point efforts in 2018. They are 6-23 SU and 9-19-1 ATS overall in this spot.

Kentucky owns the top scoring defense in the country when you factor in FBS contests only, allowing 13.4 points per game. This will be a race to 20 points. Pick ‘under’ for your best bet.

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#Dawgnation you believed. Together, we achieved.#ATD #GeorgiaFootball pic.twitter.com/Rho4OiMtQc

— Georgia Football (@FootballUGA) October 29, 2018
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Around the SEC (All Games Saturday)

No. 25 Texas A&M at Auburn (-5), noon ET, on ESPN
The ‘under’ is 14-3 (82.4 percent) in Auburn’s (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS) last 17 matchups against ranked opponents since September 2015. A 43.5 average score is falling 9.3 points shy of a 52.8 total.

South Carolina at Ole Miss (Pick ‘em), noon ET, on SEC Network
The ‘under’ is 20-12-1 (62.5 percent) since Will Muschmap took over as head coach at South Carolina (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS). The bet has cashed in 10 of 11 road games.

Missouri at No. 13 Florida (-6), 4 p.m. ET, on SEC Network
Missouri (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) QB Drew Lock posts 17.8 points per game against SEC defenses allowing less than 6.5 passing yards per attempt, going 0-15 SU and 4-11 ATS (26.7 percent). Florida (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS) enters yielding 6.25 per tilt.

No. 1 Alabama (-14) at No. 4 LSU, 8 p.m. ET, on CBS
Alabama (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS) opened a 10-point favorite in advanced lines in May, bet up to -13 prior to coming off the board. The much-anticipated clash reopened at a pair of touchdowns. Bettors have to go back to 2002 to uncover the last LSU (7-1 SU. 5-3 ATS) lost by more than 10 points at Tiger Stadium in the series. The final margins in Baton Rouge with Nick Saban in charge of the Crimson Tide: -6, 3, -4, -7, and -10.

Charlotte at Tennessee (-21), 4 p.m. ET
Tennessee (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) has mustered only 24 points in each of its last three contests against Conference USA opponents (Texas El Paso, Southern Miss., and North Texas). Charlotte (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS), on the other hand, is losing by a 61.0-10.3 average score against Power 5 foes since joining the FBS.

Louisiana Tech at No. 21 Mississippi State (-22.5), 7:30 p.m. ET, on SEC Network
Ranked SEC teams laying less than 25 points to Conference USA foes at home are 16-7 ATS (69.6 percent) in their last 23 matchups.

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