SEC Clash: Alabama-Mississippi St. Week 11 College Football Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, November 9, 2015 6:01 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 9, 2015 6:01 PM UTC

Alabama visits Mississippi St. for this SEC West divisional encounter. Let's check the college football odds at this moment Alabama stands as the big favorite, can they make it on Saturday?

Alabama (-7) vs. Mississippi State 3:30 ET 
Alabama visits Mississippi St. for this SEC West divisional encounter. The game kicks off at 3:30 ET. Last year, with Miss St. riding the wave of their No. 1 status, the Crimson Tide prevailed (25-20) against the formerly undefeated Bulldogs. That was a game where Miss St. won the yardage 428-335.  At the conclusion of that contest, Miss St. was no longer No. 1. Revenge for that defeat?  Probably not! To gain revenge, you need to have the superior team and the greater motivation. Now that Alabama is back in the hunt for the National Title chase, their super surging motivation offsets the Bulldogs’ revenge.


Betting Preview
Under 7th year HC Mullen, Miss St. is a team that has made their mark beating up on inferior opposition. But when asked to stand toe to toe with the big boys, they usually come up empty. In reading game analyses for this week, Bulldog backers will hang their hat on QB Prescott, a QB who can beat you with his legs or with his arm. You will hear that is exactly the kind of QB that Alabama has struggled with in the past.  You will also hear that Miss St. is on a roll with 4-consecutive victories to up their record to 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS, including 4-1 ATS in SEC play.  But, that most recent victory came last Thursday night in a (31-13) victory vs. offense less Missouri. A game that was played in a driving rainstorm in the first half!  There is little doubt you will get the best effort from Miss St., who has a murderer’s row finish of SEC West opponents in this game against the Crimson Tide, followed by a game at Arkansas and the Egg Bowl on this field vs. Ole Miss.  The truth is that Mullen has done an outstanding job in molding the Bulldogs to the record they have. But, a closer inspection finds that their victims have been against S. Miss, NW State, Auburn, Troy, LA Tech, Kentucky and Missouri.  The defeats were to quality opponents LSU and Texas A&M, and I think we know where Alabama stands in that hierarchy. 

The Crimson Tide fell from grace in a Week 3 (43-37) home loss to Ole Miss. In that game, a (-5) net TO margin was all you needed to know about the final result. They actually outgained the Rebels 503-433. Since that time, the Tide has been invincible winning 6 consecutive games.  They have gotten better as the season has progressed. Alabama reached their pinnacle last week in their convincing victory over arch-rival LSU (30-16). In a game where Alabama backers feared that the LSU ground game could dominate, it was actually Alabama who controlled the 4th quarter behind an offensive line and RB Henry that put the game away and never gave LSU a chance.  A glance at the YTD stats for Alabama shows us that they have a balanced explosive offense, averaging 33 points per game and their usual stout defense allowing 16 PPG, only 265 YPG and just 4.2 YP play. In the 6 years that Mullen and Saban have faced off, the scores, in reverse order, find Crimson Tide victories by counts of 25-20, 20-7, 38-7, 24-7, 30-10 and 31-3. That’s a total of 54 points or 9 PPG for Miss St. in that timeframe.  Not nearly enough to cover this pointspread!


Final Analysis
Put the college football odds in your favor by joining me in my college football pick this weekend which will take one step further in assuring you who the Real No. 1 in the country really is!  I promise you Dabo Swinney and the Clemson Tigers do not want to play Alabama.    

College Football Pick: Alabama -7 at Heritage

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