SEC Championship College Football Picks: Alabama to Struggle With Florida's Superior D

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, December 2, 2015 7:33 PM GMT

Wednesday, Dec. 2, 2015 7:33 PM GMT

We are focusing all our energy looking at the SEC Championship Game, between Florida and Alabama. Join us inside as we came up with the sharp college football pick for you to bet.

Florida vs. Alabama (-17-) 4:00PM ET
The Florida Gators matchup with the Alabama Crimson Tide for the SEC Championship! It is a 4 pm kickoff. Yet, it is a battle of two teams headed opposite directions which has the public firmly entrenched on Alabama in this one. And, why not? The Crimson Tide are playing with motivation of a Final Four bid, as well as the incredible momentum of a 9-game winning streak that has seen them recently dominate the opposition. Florida, conversely, limps into this contest off an embarrassing loss to rival Florida St. which followed an OT escape vs. lowly Florida Atlantic. 

 

Betting Analysis
Behind the scene story of this matchup is the fact that current Florida HC McElwain served as OC at Alabama for 4 years under Alabama HC Saban, before a successful stop at Colorado St. and eventually becoming the head man at Florida this season. In so doing, McElwain inherited a proud Florida program that was 11-13 SU in the last 2 seasons under former HC Muschamp. This year, Florida has gone 10-2 SU with their only losses coming to LSU (35-28) and last week by a score of (27-2) on their home field vs. arch-rival Florida St. That followed a narrow 20-14 OT escape on their home field against Florida Atlantic two weeks ago. And it culminated a dismal month of offense for Florida, who totaled just 55 points (less than 14 PPG) against the defenses of Vandy, S. Carolina, Florida Atlantic and Florida St. Surely, that is bad news against a top-ranked Alabama defense that allows just 14/265 and only 4.1 YP play. 

Alabama suffered a rare home loss on September 19th to Ole Miss (43-37). Since that time, however, there have been 9 consecutive victories in which only Texas A&M (23) has scored more than 16 points in any game vs. the Tide. For the year, the Alabama defensive front has recorded 41 sacks and allowed just 78/2.5 overland. Backing up that defense is the heady play of QB Coker and a healthy dose of RB Henry, who last week led Alabama to a 286-91 running edge against arch-rival Auburn in their (29-13) win and cover in the Iron Bowl. The fact this line is more than a TD higher than where it would have been opening week has not slowed down the Crimson Tide money, which knows that HC Saban is 22-10 ATS as a conference favorite of more than 2 TDs. 

 

And the Winner Is!!
With QB Harris at the controls, it is tough to back the Florida offense. But, the defense is another story, as they are allowing an Alabama-like 14/282 per game, including a rush defense allowing just 109/3.2. It is that perennially strong stop unit that makes them 13-7 ATS as a dog recently and 8-1 ATS in recent battles against Top 10 teams. Florida may not score much today, but neither may the Crimson Tide against the Super D of the Florida Gators. As a result, I ask you to put the college football odds in your favor and join me in this contrary play as the college football pick on the Florida Gators. 

College Football Pick: Florida +17.5 at Bovada

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