Searching for Value for Your Week 1 College Football Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, September 3, 2015 7:00 PM GMT

In this article we look at the primer that we put together for your best preparation for the College Football Season and explain why you must start with a power rating system, either of your own or from any source with whom you feel comfortable and have trust.

It has been quite a journey for us in the month of August, as we prepare for the upcoming 2015 CFB Season.  

In the last 30 days, I have presented you with a primer for your best preparation for the College Football Season, which begins this Thursday, September 3rd.  

We began with Returning Starter Theory, using parameters for Play On and Play Against teams. Following that, and working hand in glove with the returning starter theory, is our Team Experience Ratings which include lists of a combination of senior starters and returning lettermen. Again, both Play On and Play Against lists.  From there, we created separate lists of Underrated and Overrated teams. These are essential in the early going. Our attention then turned to statistical/fundamental handicapping, in which a list of 200 Club Members and Double Rushers was presented in separate Play On and Play Against lists. The month culminated with the statistical look at last year’s Defensive Dominators and False Favorites from a statistical point of view. 

These articles are all available on this site for your review. If you have not yet read these articles and incorporated them into your preparation process, then you need to do so ASAP. They provide you with a valuable basis for September handicapping.  

Even with all this work, you have just scratched the surface of selecting the games for opening week in CFB. You now must attach a value for the improvement or lack thereof that each team brings to the table at the beginning of the 2015 CFB season. Know that, while you have been going through this entire process, that the linemaker has been doing exactly the same thing. There is only Value in games worth betting when your opinion of a team is better than that of the linemaker's.

The basis for making these judgments are closing power ratings from the 2014 season. By the end of last year, most power ratings give roughly the same evaluation for the teams, as there has been an entire year of data to make these ratings. You must start with a power rating system, either of your own or from any source with whom you feel comfortable and have trust. Make your adjustments based on the evaluations of your preseason work. Then, compare your own opening lines to that of the actual lines on the college football odds board to search for your value. When your opinion is more accurate than the linemaker and the oblong ball does not bounce against you, then you have a point spread winner with your college football picks! Congratulations on a job well done.