Saturday's 'Under' the Total College Football Pick: Notre Dame vs. Clemson

Charles Stark

Saturday, October 3, 2015 4:55 PM GMT

In one of the best matchup's of the betting slate & with the weather coming in I think this is going to be a knockdown drag out type of game, added to the fact these are two good defensive teams.

College Football Odds
College Football Odds makers have come out with the total at 50.5 for this game and that is just too high in my opinion. Even without the wet weather these are two solid defenses that should come and be able to stop the other team enough to keep this game to a low final. For my under the total college football pick of the day I'm going to back under this total. Good odds right now are at Pinnacle Sports under 50.5 at -106.

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Notre Dame
I think these next few weeks we will see what Notre Dame really is all about after two crucial injuries. Offensively there averaging 41 points per game, 531.2 yards per game, and a third-down 41.67% conversion rate. It is hard to get a feel for this offense so far this season because although it seems like they played some teams, I don't think that is actually the case. They caught Texas the first game of the year, and the Longhorns might be decent, but after that they beat a subpar Virginia team, who was beating them most of the game, and an overrated Georgia Tech team. I doubt they will move the ball on Clemson at Clemson as much as they have in these previous weeks. Is going to be interesting to see how DeShone Kizer develops.

Defensively Notre Dame has allowed 19.8 points per game, 341.5 yards per game, and a third-down 27.59% conversion rate. Although Brian Kelly seems to have made his mark on the offensive side of the ball he knows the value of a good defense, and they have a good one this year. Notre Dame has done a nice job at limiting the rushing yards per game and they should see a lot of that versus Clemson who rushes the ball 56.38% of the time. Again, I'm looking for this game to be won in the trenches and for this to be a slow going affair.

 

Clemson
Much like Notre Dame, Clemson is really only faced one real opponent with a tough win at Louisville. Offensively they come in averaging 30.5 points per game, 396.5 yards per game, and a third-down 34.48% conversion rate. Decent numbers but they still don't give me a lot of confidence they are going to move the ball on the Irish. As previously mentioned, although they have a good starting quarterback in Deshaun Watson, they have done their damage so far this year on the ground. I'm looking for them to have a similar approach to this contest by controlling the ball and the clock.

Defensively Clemson has allowed 13.5 points per game, 285 yards per game, and a third-down 16.67% conversion rate. These numbers are inflated considering the competition they have faced this year, but all indications are they do have a solid defense. Against the Irish who really like the run the ball rushing 59.30% of the time, Clemson should see a nice matchup as they have only allowed 111 yards per game, again though against lesser competition.

This is going to be some tough sledding today with the weather and the fact these two teams really like to run the ball. Don't expect a high-scoring affair and expect this game to come down to probably the last possession.  Coach Dabo Swinney should have his team highly motivated to take on the Irish but honestly this game could go either way. For one of your College Football Picks I recommend backing under the total in what should be a hard-fought and wet one today at Clemson.

College Football Pick: Under 50.5 (-106) at Pinnacle