San Diego State Aztecs vs Wyoming Cowboys - College Football Expert Pick

San Diego Aztecs Players

Drew Martin

Friday, December 2, 2016 7:00 PM GMT

The Mountain West Championship game features a rematch of the exciting encounter The Aztecs and Cowboys had a couple of weeks ago. Drew Martin examines the College Football odds and provides the betting angle he likes the most.

The Mountain West Championship game will be held in Laramie, Wyoming for the first time in history as the reigning MWC champs San Diego State Aztecs take on the Wyoming Cowboys. This is a rematch of the thrilling November 19th meeting which featured a hard fought 34-33 finish with Wyoming prevailing as 8.5 point underdogs. Wyoming came out on top despite giving up just short of 500 yards to the Aztecs. The total closed at 54 for their first meeting, the total for the rematch on Saturday night is currently priced at 62 across the odds board. The 8-point uptick some will think is an overreaction, although there are important fundamental reasons supporting it not being enough of a move.

The Wyoming defense suffered major setbacks the last couple weeks and I am not only referring to the disappointing statistics on the defensive side. The Copyboys senior nose tackle Chase Appleby suffered a season-ending knee injury in the first half of UW's 34-33 home win the first time around vs San Diego State. Wyoming linebacker DJ May received news last week he will be missing the remainder of the season. Also, sophomore defensive end and Wyoming’s best pass rusher Carl Granderson was the first out for the year against Air Force. Three of Wyoming’s best defensive players are lost for the season off a thin front seven rotation.

San Diego State clinched the West division a few weeks back and since wrapping it up Rocky Long has limited the touches for his star running back Donnel Pumphrey, which is a big reason for the drop-off in offensive production. With the conference championship on the line Pumphrey’s carries should be well into the 20’s and he will likely flirt with 30 touches against a banged-up Cowboy defense. Pumphrey getting more touches will drastically benefit the Aztecs ability to break big plays similar to what New Mexico did last week to Wyoming.

The entire month of November was over the total finishes for each SDSU and Wyoming, nine totals to the over to be exact. The fashion in which Colorado State carved up the Aztec defense through the air combined with the way New Mexico slashed the Cowboy’s defense for over 550 yards on the ground is a recipe for a shootout. The total has been bought down a bit, likely due to the pace metrics of each offense ranking on the slower side. Although when you look at the inability for each defensive unit to stop the opposing offense’s strength, tempo takes a back row seat. I expect a fun one to watch Saturday night on ESPN and keeping the trend is your friend slogan in mind,  for my College Football Pick, I recommend a wager on the over of 62 which you can find at Bookmaker.

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Free College Football Pick: Over 62Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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