Rockets Ready to Zap the Zips in MAC Championship Game

toledo akron

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, November 29, 2017 7:49 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 29, 2017 7:49 PM UTC

High noon on Saturday will feature the MAC championship game between the Akron Zips and the Toledo Rockets at Ford Field in the Motor City. Let’s review the college football odds and get on the right side of this clash.

Free NCAAF Pick: Toledo -21.5Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3371476, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1252,626,139,1275], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Akron (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS) vs. Toledo (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS)
  • Toledo is 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Toledo is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
  • Toledo is 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
  • Akron is 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Akron is 1-4 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Akron is 1-5 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Toledo is by far and away the better team and the class of the MAC this season. The Rockets proved that when they trounced Akron 48-21 earlier this season. And let’s not forget, that was when the Zips had their starting quarterback Thomas Woodson under center, and he tossed a pair of touchdown strikes in the loss. However, Woodson is suspended and although there is a slight chance he could start, the far more likely signal-caller will be freshman Kato Nelson. Nelson has had three starts, with the first being a 24-14 loss to Miami of Ohio, the second was a solid effort in which he tossed for four TDs en route to a 37-34 win over Ohio, but his last outing he went a dismal 6-of-20 for 69 yards yet his team came out a winner in a 24-14 victory over Kent State.

The huge problem the Zips will have with the Rockets is that they have no rushing attack to speak of as they rank 118th in the nation averaging only 108.2 yards per game on the ground. Toledo, on the other hand, has a punishing run game that ranks 27th and averages over 215 yards per contest. Couple that with a top-notch QB in Logan Woodside, who has commanded the Toledo passing attack with laser-like precision as evidenced by his 24 TD tosses to only three picks on the season. Woodside is the primary reason why the Rockets rank 20th in the country in passing with over 290 yards per game.

I understand why the college football odds makers are seeing an influx of Toledo money after opening the Rockets as 18-point favorites and have watched that number climb to 21½ at most online sportsbooks. They beat Akron by 27 points already, and if anything this team has improved since that meeting with Woodside’s comprehensive knowledge of the system refined and now a more intuitive rapport with his receivers. Toledo has had one misstep after beating Akron and that was a 38-10 loss at Ohio. Take that game out, and they are averaging over 47 points per game and will suit up against an Akron defense that allows nearly 25 points per game against far less potent offenses.

I know the point spread on Toledo is steep, but so too is the disparity in talent between these two schools. Lay the lumber and back the Rockets in your college football picks. You’ll be glad you did.

comment here