Road Favorite Toledo with Betting Edge vs. Kent State

Jeff Grant

Monday, November 3, 2014 3:47 PM GMT

Monday, Nov. 3, 2014 3:47 PM GMT

Toledo has the best offensive attack in the MAC this season, which makes them a Week 11 College Football pick against Kent State Tuesday night.

Putting Up Numbers
Toledo is the only team in the Mid-American Conference without a league loss heading into November, which is important to consider when looking over the College Football odds, as it looks to build off a 42-35 victory against UMass as 17.5-point home favorites on Oct. 25.

The Rockets lead the conference in averaging 35.0 points and 505.1 yards per game, while their defense sits behind just one team in limiting foes to 106.1 yards a contest on the ground.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the program is 8-2 SU and 3-7 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record, with the OVER going 6-4 in that situation.

 

Unable to Get Things Going
Kent State will remain a double-digit home underdog until kickoff, as it ranks last in the MAC in scoring 14.1 points per game, while it lands in the 12th spot in terms of gaining just 299.8 yards an affair.

The Golden Flashes will need sophomore quarterback Colin Reardon to play at a high level to cover this number, as he’s completed 166-of-295 passes for 1,788 yards and nine touchdowns.

Since the 2012 campaign, the school is 2-0 ATS as underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points, with no advantage in terms of the betting total (1-1 Over/Under).

Make intelligent College Football picks by reading this week's inflated odds report.

Hunt-ed
The Rockets have one of the more dynamic running backs in the country, as Kareem Hunt leads the MAC with 145.0 yards per game, while he sits in the fifth position in gaining 8.53 yards a carry.

Toledo has done a great job of keeping him fresh throughout the year, as he’s managed to rush for over 100 yards in each of his last six games, including two in which he did not play in the second half.

 

Key Trends
The Golden Flashes are 14-0 SU when leading at halftime since the start of the 2012 season, but they’ve fallen in defeat in 17 of 18 contests when failing to accomplish that feat.

Kent State will need to control the line of scrimmage for 60 minutes to stay competitive in this in-state matchup, as it has gone 2-16 SU when losing the ground battle the last two-plus seasons.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Rockets as one of their Week 11 College Football picks, as the Golden Flashes have failed to cover their six home losses under head coach Paul Haynes by an average of 12.3 points.

Free College Football Pick: Toledo Rockets -12.5 at Pinnacle

comment here