Rivalry Revenge Angle Makes Duke +8 the College Football Pick vs. North Carolina

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, November 4, 2015 6:24 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015 6:24 PM UTC

Our handicapper previews Saturday’s big rivalry game between Duke and North Carolina. Which one of these surprising teams will prevail? Go inside to read his Big Dog of the Week college football pick.

Duke vs. North Carolina (-8), Saturday, November 7, Noon ET ESPN
The Duke Blue Devils travel the 8 pine-lined miles to Chapel Hill for the renewal of their rivalry with the Tar Heels.  Each team is having an outstanding season.  N. Carolina enters on a 7-game win streak with a record of 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS, a (+64) AFP and with a 4-0 SU record in ACC play.  Duke is 6-2 SU for the season, 5-3 ATS with a (+68) AFP and a 3-1 SU mark in ACC action. 

Last week, N. Carolina traveled to Pitt, where they extended to a 7-game win streak with a (26-19) victory against the Panthers.  In a hard fought game, N. Carolina held the running game of Pittsburgh to 153 yards.  Defensive improvement under new DC Chizik has been the major reason for the Tar Heels’ improvement from their 6-7 SU season of last.  After allowing 39 PPG LY, the Tar Heels are allowing just 17 PPG this year on just 4.9 YP play.  Concerns abound, however, about a rushing defense that is still vulnerable at 205/4.6.   There are little concerns about the offense, who behind veteran explosive QB Williams, has 200 CLUB status.  They will be clearly tested by the Super D stop unit of the Duke Blue Devils. 


Betting Trends Worth Noting
There is plenty to like about this big rivalry dog that includes both the situation as well as the fundamentals.  Last year, Duke hosted N. Carolina on November 20th.  It looked like a bounce back spot for Duke, after a (17-16) home loss to Virginia Tech.  But, the Blue Devils fell flat on their face in a (45-20) home loss.  Mark one up for the quality team in rivalry revenge.  Adding fuel to that emotional fire are the results of last week on their home field vs. Miami.  Duke had stormed back to take a late-game lead before the Miami miracle that was a highly-questioned 8 lateral TD on the final play of the game resulted in a Miami outright upset.   

That play was questionable enough that the ACC officiating staff, who worked that game, has been suspended.  That doesn’t change the result which means Duke is now 3-1 SU in ACC play, trailing N. Carolina by a game in the standings.  Chalk up another one in the column for Duke!  Finally is the point spread value in this game.  Because of N. Carolina’s high-profile success, Duke is actually taking more points in this game than they would have opening week.  Yet, it is Duke who is on a 23-10 ATS run L2+Y, a surge of 11-3 ATS in the underdog role and 12-1 SU when playing on the road. 


Betting Analysis
Way too much going for Duke to ignore them at this price point!  As a result, we Must put the college football odds in our favor in playing Duke (+8) as our college football pick as the College Football Big Dog of the Week. Based on rivalry revenge, their Super D underdog status and confirming technicals, it will be no surprise to this bureau if Duke wins this game outright.  

College Football Picks: Duke +8 at 5Dimes

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