Revenge Factor Makes Texas A&M our College Football Pick vs. Alabama

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, October 15, 2015 7:50 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 15, 2015 7:50 PM UTC

The Alabama Crimson Tide visits the Texas A&M Aggies in a crucial SEC matchup that provides our Revenge Game of the Week college football pick.

Alabama (-4) vs. Texas A&M, Saturday, October 17, 3:30 PM ET CBS
At 3:30 ET on Saturday, as televised by CBS, Alabama travels to Texas A&M for this SEC showdown.  Following the results of last year and the reasons below, you will understand why this can only be termed as my college football pick as the Revenge of the Game of the Week.  At a price point which finds the undefeated Aggies as a home underdog, the college football odds are clearly in our favor. 

Texas A&M players and coaches, to a man, well remember the (59-0) whipping inflicted by Alabama last season on these Aggies. Texas A&M was outgained 602-172 in that contest.   That was the worst in a bad year of defense for Texas A&M, who under 4th year HC Sumlin, allowed an average of 30 PPG and 497 YPG the last 2 years combined.  TO cure these ills, Sumlin brought in former LSU DC Chavis to improve the stop unit.  Success has come in the form of a defense allowing just 21 PPG and 375 YPG.  Yet, the Aggie offense has stayed explosive, averaging 39/480.  It has resulted in a 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS start, which has included a trio of notable victories against Arizona St., Arkansas and Mississippi St.  But, there is more to this than simply revenge.  Teaming with that situation is one of the strongest situational concepts in CFB handicapping.  That is “playing the inferior team at home with rest, following a victory and with revenge.”  This concept also gets stronger as the season progresses, so look for it in weeks ahead. 

Never easy to fade the Crimson Tide, whose offense and defensive numbers are exemplary.  But in home games against Ole Miss, a 43-37 Alabama loss, and in last week’s 27-14 win vs. Arkansas (Alabama trailed in the 3rd quarter), the Tide proved they were vulnerable.  Expect that to be the case again this Saturday, as Tide triplets, QB Coker, RB Henry and WR Ridley, struggle for yardage against DC Chavis, who knows the propensities of Nick Saban very well. 

It is clear from the analysis above that this is a powerful situational spot for the home dog Aggies.  This is a game that A&M has had circled on their calendar.  Not only is the storied Alabama program coming to town, but we have an undefeated home underdog, who has been preparing for 2 weeks to extract revenge for a huge shutout loss.  And, as the Crimson Tide and Nick Saban will find out this Saturday afternoon, “it aint no fun when the rabbit got the gun.”

College Football Picks: Texas A&M +4 at Bovada 

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