Revenge Factor & Consistent Offense Make Baylor -21 Our College Football Pick Against West Virginia

David Lawrence

Tuesday, October 13, 2015 6:48 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2015 6:48 PM UTC

The Mountaineers are really struggling, while the Bears look like one of the best teams in the country. Can West Virginia reverse its direction, and can Baylor stay on the same course and beat the college football odds?

The Mountaineers are coming off a difficult 33-26 overtime loss to Oklahoma State at home last Saturday. The Mountaineers gave up a touchdown to the Cowboys on offense, as quarterback Skyler Howard fumbled a ball in the end zone which Oklahoma State recovered. West Virginia did well to rally in the second half on the strength of a defense which was able to continue to give the ball back to the offense. However, that offense is still nowhere near where it should be under head coach Dana Holgorsen. West Virginia’s insufficient development of quarterbacks is a real problem, and this is a key reason why the Mountaineers are off to such a poor start in the Big 12. Skyler Howard has not been the quarterback this team hoped it would have in 2015.

Baylor cruised past Kansas in a massive blowout. The Bears covered a kickoff point spread of 45 points. They covered that spread by 14 points, too. The Bears are getting what they want out of quarterback Seth Russell, and their offense is operating with the clinical quality head coach Art Briles expects. You can minimize Baylor’s accomplishments by pointing to the claim that the Bears have played the softer portion of their Big 12 schedule, but Baylor is still taking care of business when it takes the field, and bettors have to respect that quality about this team. They’ve been a popular choice for college football picks this season.


Line Moves
The line started with Baylor as a 19-point choice, and that line has moved to 21 points for the Bears. Bettors are impressed by Baylor’s ability to consistently score big, and they are also reacting to West Virginia having a very inconsistent offense, one which doesn’t have the passing game needed to keep pace with the Bears. Baylor is at home, and the Bears also lost at West Virginia last season, creating a revenge factor that a lot of bettors are aware of. This line was set too low, and people are jumping on the line before it probably climbs higher, to 22 and maybe even 23 points by kickoff time.


Notable Injuries
West Virginia has linebacker Edward Muldrow out indefinitely for undisclosed reasons. Defensive back Karl Joseph is out for the season with a knee injury.

Baylor has running back Devin Chafin listed as questionable for this game with a hamstring injury. Defensive tackle Byron Bonds is questionable with a hand injury. Tight end Tre’Von Armstead left the team. Defensive back J.W. Ketchum is out indefinitely due to a suspension.


Handicapping the Game
The Bears are just a machine right now, and West Virginia’s offense just doesn’t inspire confidence at the moment under Skyler Howard. If West Virginia’s offense was playing a lot better, it would make a lot more sense to think the Mountaineers could cover a three-touchdown spread. In their present condition, though, they don’t seem ready to keep this game close. A motivated Baylor team should cover the college football odds here.

College Football Pick: Baylor -21 at 5Dimes

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