Red-Hot College Football Capper Leans Syracuse Over NC State On Week 11 Odds

Ross Benjamin

Friday, November 11, 2016 9:57 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 11, 2016 9:57 PM UTC

SBR contributor Ross Benjamin has gone a sizzling-hot 33-17 over the past six weeks with his college football picks. What's his choice for Saturday's ACC matchup between NC State and Syracuse? The host Orange are +7 at SBR's best sportsbooks. 


Uncertainty At QB For Syracuse

There was no point spread or total listed on this game until Friday morning. It unequivocally had to do with the uncertain status of Syracuse starting quarterback Eric Dungey, and even now he’s still is listed as questionable. Dungey sustained a head injury (concussion) during the first quarter of last Saturday’s 54-0 loss at No. 3 Clemson and didn't return. Dungey has thrived in new head coach Dino Babers' up-tempo offensive system.

Dungey is completing 64.8% of his passes for 2,679 yards and 15 touchdowns. The sophomore has also rushed for 293 yards and six TDs. If Dungey can’t play, Syracuse will rely on the combination of former walk-on Zach Mahoney and redshirt junior Austin Wilson. Neither of those quarterbacks possess a combination of mobility and passing accuracy that Dungey brings to the table.

My educated guess is Dungey will play, and let me explain the basis for that prediction. My personal power index numbers show that NC State should be a 6.5-point favorite on college football odds in this contest. That number is extremely close to the current line. Hypothetically if Dungey were unable to play, Syracuse should be anywhere from a 9.0 to 9.5-point underdog using that formula. I don’t see the top online betting sites leaving themselves that exposed.


Reeling Wolfpack

NC State began this season by getting off to an encouraging 4-1 start but has lost four straight. The Wolfpack offense has struggled during the past five contests, actually, and has scored an average of only 14.8 points per game in that span. Furthermore, NC State is 0-3 in away games this season and is allowing 37.0 points and 497.7 yards per game in them.

The Wolfpack did beat Syracuse at home last season by a score of 42-29 but failed to cover as an 18.5-point favorite, and the game easily went 'over' the total of 55.5.


Final Take

Since the start of last season, Syracuse has gone a respectable 6-5 straight up and 8-3 ATS at home. In addition, Orange are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in their previous three at home vs. conference opponents with at least one loss. I’ll have a small lean toward the home underdog.

NCAAF Free Pick: Syracuse +7.0Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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