Projecting the 2015 College Football 200 Offensive Club Members

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, August 18, 2015 10:49 PM GMT

We look at the success that college football teams have had with balanced attacks over the last 15 years to reflect on a situation that has provided a consistent 75% ATS winners in the years gone by.

In August of 2015, I authored a number of NFL articles to prove the importance of the running game in handicapping the NFL. A future article will focus on the same type of overland dominance that can lead to point spread winners in 2015 CFB. Today, however, we focus on the success that CFB teams have had this millennium with balanced attacks. 

As yardage and scoring soars ever upward to an average of 400+ YPG per team, and 28 PPG per team, the relevance of this 200 Club article may appear to lose some of its bite. Such is not the case, however, as the numbers have stayed consistent in recent years. No longer is CFB a game of “three yards and a cloud of dust” as was applicable in the Woody Hayes’ years at Ohio State. Today, there is more emphasis on the passing game, with a greater abundance of top flight QBs and receivers. From a historical perspective, this article reflects on a situation that has provided a consistent 75% ATS winners in the years gone by. In an effort to look ahead to the potential candidates for 200 Club members this 2015 CFB season, I present the following chart of teams who were successful 200 Club members last season. Because you can’t know where you are going, unless you know where you’ve been. Along with the returning starter information, it will give us a good jump on who the potential 200 Club members will be for the upcoming season. 

The chart below provides a look at the past in an effort to predict the future. Remember that the ATS record from last season reflects the YTD numbers Not The Games In Which The Team Rushed And Passed For 200+ Yards Against An Opponent Who Did Not.

 

2014 200 Club Members

TEAM

CONS

YRS

2014

SU

2014

ATS

RY

PY

TY

DY

OFF

RTN

QB

OL

RTN

Alabama

4+

12-2

6-7

206

277

483

328

3

N

2

App St

1

7-5

5-5

242

219

461

347

10

Y

4

Arkansas St

3

7-6

7-5

217

260

477

421

9

Y

3

Auburn

1

8-5

4-8

256

229

485

399

5

N

3

Baylor

4+

11-2

7-5

215

366

581

382

9

N

5

Boise State

1

12-2

8-6

215

280

495

375

9

N

5

Georgia

1

10-3

7-5

259

200

459

337

7

N

4

Marshall

2

13-1

8-5

272

287

559

357

6

N

3

Michigan State

1

11-2

8-4

235

266

501

316

7

Y

4

Mid Tenn St

1

6-6

5-6

214

217

431

452

8

Y

4

Mississippi St

1

10-3

7-5

234

280

514

424

4

Y

2

NC St

1

8-5

7-5

205

204

409

373

7

Y

4

Nebraska

1

9-4

8-4

240

212

452

384

7

Y

2

Ohio State

2

14-1

10-5

265

247

512

342

8

Y

4

Oklahoma

1

8-5

5-8

261

204

465

383

6

Y

2

Oregon

4+

13-2

10-4

234

312

546

430

8

N

3

 

As you can see from the combined SU, ATS records of last season, these teams were a combined 197-41 SU and 140-107 ATS (57%). That is far from the over 70% winners that I promised you at the start of this article. But remember, that is the point spread record in all games for all teams. Here’s a couple of juicy subsets to consider before I tell you how it works in the real world. 

•60-30 ATS 67% - play any 200 Club member whose total yardage is 500+ YPG
•87-51 ATS 63% - play any 200 Club member who outgains opponent by 100+ YPG

In the real world, this is how it has played out in recent years. 

Play Any College Football Team Who Runs and Passes for 200+ YPG If Their Opponent Does Not

452-143 ATS 76%

Now it becomes our job to isolate, on the CFB card each week, which team will run and pass for 200 yards while their opponent does not. This involves focusing on how potential 200 Club members have performed against similar opponents to today’s foes. It also involves an analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of each offense and defense. With a bit of work, you will become highly successful at isolating these plays. If not, stay tuned on this site for my 2015 CFB Crushers of the Week.