Projecting the 2015 College Football 200 Club Defensive Duds

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, August 18, 2015 11:41 PM GMT

Tuesday, Aug. 18, 2015 11:41 PM GMT

We look at the college football teams that haven't had balanced attacks over the last 15 years to reflect on a situation that has provided just 37.8% ATS winners in the years gone by.

As with most of the articles I author when analyzing college and NFL statistics, there is nearly always a yin to the yang. Such is the case with the 200 Offensive Club members. This is a companion article to the recently authored “Projecting the 2015 CFB 200 Offensive Club Members.” In that article, I pointed out how you could achieve 76% ATS winners by isolating any CFB team who runs and passes for 200+ YPG if their opponent does not. 

With yardage and scoring on the rise to nearly 400 YPG and 28 PPG in college football, one would assume that it would not be a big deal if a CFB team allowed 200 YPG, both running and passing. Such is not the case as proven in the companion article. 

In an effort to use the past to predict the future, the following chart details which 2014 CFB teams Allowed both 200 YPG running and passing. 

 

2014 Defensive Duds

TEAM                   

CONS

 YEARS

2014 SU

2014 ATS

DEF RY

DEF PY

DEF TY

OFF RY

OFF

YDS

DEF

RTN

DL

RTN

Arkansas St.

1

7-6

7-5

205

216

421

217

477

5

2

Bowling Green

1

8-6

4-9

202

291

493

173

435

4

2

Colorado

3

2-10

6-6

205

255

460

155

439

9

3

Colorado St.

1

10-3

7-5

201

224

425

159

481

8

3

E. Michigan

3

2-10

5-6

225

274

499

138

290

8

3

Florida Atlantic

1

3-9

6-6

223

238

461

164

363

6

3

Fresno St.

1

6-8

6-7

202

254

456

182

407

6

2

Idaho

2

1-10

4-7

248

214

462

140

412

6

2

Illinois

2

6-7

5-7

239

217

456

117

367

7

2

Iowa St.

2

2-10

4-7

246

283

529

124

372

6

2

Kansas

1

3-9

5-6

210

243

453

121

324

4

2

Kent St.

1

2-9

5-6

215

216

431

82

315

8

2

Maryland

1

7-6

5-7

202

234

436

122

342

4

1

Miami OH

3

2-10

7-4

200

234

434

102

380

8

3

New Mexico

2

4-8

6-6

268

249

517

311

400

8

2

N. Carolina

1

6-7

5-7

241

257

498

151

429

7

2

Old Dominion

1

6-6

4-7

224

230

454

149

442

4

1

Rutgers

1

8-5

8-4

213

230

443

163

390

6

2

SMU

1

1-11

4-8

235

264

499

100

269

7

2

S. Carolina

1

7-6

5-7

212

221

433

161

443

9

3

S. Mississippi

3

3-9

5-6

216

235

451

96

365

4

2

Texas A&M

2

8-5

4-8

217

234

451

150

455

7

3

Texas St.

1

7-5

8-3

203

243

446

238

464

5

2

TTRR

2

4-8

6-5

260

253

513

153

504

7

1

Troy

1

3-9

6-5

245

206

451

164

363

7

3

Tulsa

2

2-10

5-7

215

272

487

148

412

6

3

UNLV

3

2-11

5-7

294

219

513

129

387

5

1

W. Kentucky

1

8-5

6-7

221

289

510

162

536

9

4

Wyoming

3

4-8

4-7

203

228

431

154

381

4

2

 

By totaling the 2014 SU and ATS columns, you can see that these Defensive Duds were just 134-226 SU (37.2%) and 157-182 ATS (46.3%). As with the article on 200 Club Offensive Members, note that this record is the point spread in All games for All teams. Here are a couple of subsets to consider before we look at the actual numbers of recent seasons: 

•120-147 ATS - if excluding any team who outgains their opposition (37-35 ATS).

•34-56 ATS (37.8%) – if the Defensive Dud is outgained by 100+ YPG by their opponents.

I conclude this companion article to the 200 Club Offensive teams by repeating the real world numbers for the last 4 seasons. 

Play any CFB team who runs and passes for 200+ YPG, if their opponent does not

452-143 ATS (76%)

These numbers from last year simply isolate the teams who were Defensive Duds in the 2014 season. A clue to projecting this year’s Duds may come by reviewing the consecutive years each team has qualified in such a role. In addition, pay special attention to the last 2 columns on the right, which list the amount of experience these teams possess on the defensive side of the ball. Most of all, remember that this is a “matchup game.” For every game handicapped, we must analyze the strengths and weaknesses of each offense against the opposing defense.  Let this list work hand in glove with the companion article on 200 Offensive Club Members from 2014. It can be a valuable aid in the month of September. By the time October rolls around, you will have enough current season data (assuming a similar strength of schedule) to project 200 Club winners on a weekly basis.

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