Profit Off Underdogs in Week 13 College Football Betting

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, November 18, 2014 1:05 PM GMT

Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2014 1:05 PM GMT

Louisville and Arkansas face over-ranked and overpriced Notre Dame and Mississippi teams this Saturday and appear to be good Underdog picks in games both could also end up winning.

Razorbacks to Win Second Straight SEC Tilt on Saturday?

#8 Mississippi vs. Arkansas (Mississippi -3, Pinnacle)
Arkansas (5-5 SU, 1-5 SEC, 8-2 ATS) snapped a 17-game SEC losing streak, upsetting and shutting out #17 LSU, 17-0 last Saturday night here at Home in Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville and no doubt the students, alumni and fans of Arkansas will be back this Saturday afternoon for this final Home game of the year against #8 Mississippi (8-2 SU, 6-3-1 ATS). With a defense which will be coming off a shutout, expect the Razorbacks to again try to put the screws to the Rebels, who, like Notre Dame (below) and #21 Nebraska, may be more of a pretender than a contender.

But how is Arkansas going to hang with Mississippi? With the 22nd best Rushing attack (232.9 ypg) in the nation led by the dynamic duo of RBs Jonathan Williams (952 yards, 11 TDs) and Alex Collins (886 yards, 11 TDs), of course. Bret Bielema’s (13-9 ATS) Razorbacks are actually a pretty decent team, they just have the problem of playing on the same bill (the SEC West) as The Beatles, Pink Floyd, Led Zeppelin, The Rolling Stones, The Who and AC/DC while they are like Fleetwood Mac or The Doors. Arkansas only loses to good teams—(then-ranked) #6 Auburn, #6 Texas A&M, #7 Alabama, #10 Georgia and #1 Mississippi State and obviously has learned something about losing to some of the top teams in the nation as it showed against the Tigers. Expect Razorbacks QB Brandon Allen (160 Completions, 1,905 yards, 15 TDs) to mix it up as much as possible against Ole Miss and to use WRs Keon Hatcher (35 reception, 435 yards, 3 TDs) and Hunter Henry (30 receptions, 417 yards, 2 TDs) as much as possible.

Arkansas is a surprising 8-2 ATS this season—playing in the toughest division in the toughest conference in college football—and the Razorbacks are an impressive 9-1 ATS in their L10 games against teams with winning records and Arkansas is 8-1 ATS in their L9 versus opponents on FieldTurf.

With a rabid and interested Home crowd coming off a big win against a deflated opponent with really not much of significance to fight for, the thought of taking a team so good running the ball with a defense coming off a shutout and getting 3 points is too much to resist here with Woo Pig Sooie Nation. The Money Line (Winner) College Football odds have Mississipi at -150 and Arkansas at +130 (SIA) if interested.

Free College Football Picks: Arkansas +3 at 5Dimes

 

Cardinals and the Points Look Good vs. the Irish in South Bend

Louisville vs. Notre Dame (Notre Dame -4, Pinnacle)
Notre Dame (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) has been knocked from the AP rankings after back-to-back losses to #7 Arizona State and Northwestern and now head coach Brian Kelly (28-30-4 ATS) has to worry about this Louisville (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS, 5-3 ACC) team in South Bend on Saturday afternoon, where the weather forecast is for a chance of Rain and a High of 54°. So, football weather. The Money Line (Winner) odds here have host and Favorite Notre Dame at -172 with Louisville priced at +152 (Pinnacle). With QB Everett Golson, the Fighting Irish have improved to a wonderful level, but the attention this school gets because of its contract with NBC and the hype that come along with it end up making Notre Dame lines around 2-3 points higher than they usually should be..

The trends favor the Cardinals here with Louisville an incredible 23-8 ATS in its L31 Road games and the Cardinals 4-1 ATS Away this season. Like Arkansas above, Louisville has cut its teeth on some fairly tough teams so far this season (Miami, #2 Florida State, Clemson). But with talented QB Will Gardner out for the rest of the season, the Cardinals have turned to freshman Reggie Bonnafon and he was 4-for-5 for 69 yards last weekend coming in for Gardner in a 38-19 win at Boston College. But with a freshman at QB, Louisville will have to get extra effort from other offensive skill players like RB Brandon Radcliff (445 yards, 8 TDs) and Michael Dyer (414 yards, 4 TDs) and the talented WR corps which includes ace DeVante Parker, James Quick, Eli Rogers, Gerald Christian and Kai De la Cruz.

Like Mississippi above, besides being overrated, Notre Dame has to be deflated and Louisville has the weapons, the mindset and has played teams tough enough to prepare them to be able to beat the Fighting Irish in South Bend. If they don’t, those 4 points may really come in handy. Louisville—which has scored more than 30 points in 3 straight games—may be getting some really big players back for this one. LB Lorenzo Mauldin (hamstring), DL Pio vatuvei (elbow) and suspended WR Quick may all be back on Saturday if everything goes right. And expect head coach Bobby Petrino (36-24 ATS) to do his best to have all three back in the fold. And with Notre Dame allowing an average of 42.2 ppg over its L5 and Louisville possessing the #5 defense in the nation, this one could also probably be approached from both the Money Line (+130) and Point Spread (+4, -110) angles for your Week 13 College Football picks.

Free College Football Picks: Louisville +4 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

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