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Predicting Pac-12 Over/Under Win Totals for Next Season

Predicting Pac-12 Over/Under Win Totals for Next Season
Running back Breece Hall #28 of the Iowa State Cyclones carries in front of linebacker Noah Sewell #1 of the Oregon Ducks. Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images/AFP

Last college football season was unprecedented, but things will be back to normal for the most part in 2021. For the Pac-12, that means that most teams should be able to play a full season of games. COVID-19 took a lot away from the college football experience and also college football picks, but one missing piece of the puzzle was win totals. Every team played a different amount of games, and the difficulty of the schedule was out of each team’s control.

Now, the Pac-12 can try again to have a team make the College Football Playoff. With that in mind, how will each team do compared to their win total predictions? All odds come from BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Arizona: Over 2.5 wins (-125)

Arizona will have a new head coach, and they don’t have many reasons to be excited about this season. Still, 2.5 wins is way too low for almost any team in the Pac-12. The conference is too unpredictable to expect any team to lose every game.

Tight end Curtis Hodges #86 of the Arizona State Sun Devils carries the football en route to scoring on a 74-yard touchdown. Christian Petersen/Getty Images/AFP

Arizona also has at least one easy win in non-conference. Depending on how it goes, they could win two or three non-conference games. That would leave them with needing only one conference win, and they should be good for that. Expect a down year from Arizona, but not this bad.

Arizona State: Over 9 wins (-115)

This is a perfect betting line for the Sun Devils. The toughness of the matter is that Arizona State is a wildcard this season. They have a great head coach and one of the best quarterbacks in the conference, but they haven’t proven in the past that they can sustain success.

This is supposed to be a breakthrough year for Arizona State, but they could still crash and burn. The fact remains that I don’t see four losses on their schedule, so I have to take the over.

California: Under 6 wins (-130)

I don’t like the value here, but California is not going to be competitive this season. They have question marks all over the depth chart, and they haven’t proven in the past that they can overcome an insufficient roster.

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The Golden Bears are good for an upset or two, but they don’t seem to be a bowl team in 2021. That may be harsh, but someone has to hit the under.

Colorado: Under 4.5 wins (-115)

Colorado is better when they have at least one star on the roster, and they may be missing that this year. Still, they will be better than their record suggests. Colorado is almost always a gritty team that is tough to beat in any given game.

The only reason I have Colorado hitting the under is their strength of schedule. They have to play Minnesota and Texas A&M outside of the conference. They have too many tough road conference games to get to five wins, but Colorado still has a relatively bright future.

Oregon: Over 9 wins (-130)

Someone has to win the Pac-12, and Oregon has a great chance to. They have one of the best pass rushers in college football, and they have plenty of talent coming in thanks to Mario Cristobal’s recruiting.

Noah Sewell #1 and Verone McKinley III #23 of the Oregon Ducks pose during the Oregon spring game. Abbie Parr/Getty Images/AFP

The balance is there on offense, and the talent is there on defense. The only worrisome part of this prediction is that Oregon has to play Ohio State. This will almost definitely be a loss for the Ducks, so they will have to go through the rest of their schedule with only one loss. I think they can do that, but bet the under if you disagree.

Oregon State: Under 4.5 wins (-115)

Oregon State is always a wild card. They can upset a team or two, but they rarely have sustained success over the course of a regular season. They played more games than any other Pac-12 team in 2020, and they still only got two wins.

Adding non-conference opponents will be a blessing for the Beavers, but games against Purdue and Hawaii are far from guaranteed wins. Unless they get two wins out of the conference, they have no chance of hitting the over.

Stanford: Over 4 wins (-115)

While Stanford has struggled in recent years, they have one of the best coaches in college football. David Shaw raises the floor for this team, and that’s why I have them hitting the over.

UCLA: Under 7 wins (-125)

UCLA has a solid quarterback, but they come into every season overhyped. At the end of the day, Chip Kelly isn’t the guy to get it done for the Bruins. He’s been there long enough to show what he can do, and it isn’t enough to make UCLA an 8-4 team.

USC: Over 8.5 wins (+100)

This prediction is solely based on the value of the odds. USC has their quarterback, and that goes a long way. They have proven that they can develop great receivers, and the offensive line should be relatively solid. In a conference filled with C+ teams, a B+ looks a lot like an A. The Trojans aren’t on the same level as the other CFP contenders, but they look a lot better than most of the teams in this conference.

Running back Kenan Christon #23 of the USC Trojans runs with the football en route to scoring on a 58 yard touchdown. Christian Petersen/Getty Images/AFP

Utah: Under 8.5 wins (+110)

Utah is a great team, but this is another value play. The Utes had an elite defense, but most of those players are now in the NFL. Without that level of experience on the roster, it will be hard to sustain success in Utah.

Washington: Under 9 wins (-135)

I don’t like the value here, but there is no scenario where I see the Huskies winning 10 games. Even with an experienced team and a solid coaching staff, the Pac-12 is too unpredictable for that. Washington is good, but going 10-2 would make them great, and that is not the case.

Washington State: Under 6 wins (-110)

As time progresses, Leach’s impact on Washington State will diminish. His players will graduate, and it will be solely on the new coaching staff to prove themselves. That’s bad news for the Cougars, and that’s why I have them failing to reach a bowl game this season. Even with a respectable schedule, there is too much for Washington State to overcome.