Predicting ATS Success in Kentucky vs. LSU NCAAF Pick

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, October 15, 2014 5:39 PM GMT

This College Football pick for Kentucky vs. LSU uses a strategy known as "perception/reality" plays seek value in the betting line using under-valued teams vs. over-appreciated favorites.

The object of the PERCEPTION/REALITY plays is to seek value based on the linemaker and public perception that one team is better than they really are, while the other team is overrated based on their successful history, tradition, and public perception.  When these teams meet, we have found ATS success by backing the reality of these teams. 

Last week in this very space, North Carolina cruised in easily under the number, reversing a pair of recent defeats and putting PERCEPTION/REALTIY plays firmly above the .500 record for the season.  Remember that all College Football Picks on the Pointspread Prognosis are 42-20 ATS L2Y, including 15-6 ATS TY, following our 3-0 ATS sweep last week.  Today’s selection will add to that winning record. 

Today, we may have the better team as a near double digit underdog at sportsbooks like Pinnacle.  This is an inexperienced LSU team whose lack of excellence on both sides of the ball is beginning to show.  In fact, the Tigers are not that far from being 3-4 SU instead of 5-2 SU.  Narrow victories against Wisconsin (28-24) and last week against Florida (30-27) were virtual coin flips.  In last week’s Florida game, LSU had to kick a 50 yard field goal with 3 seconds left for the win.  Credit goes to LSU HC Miles for his 23rd late-game comeback win as mentor of the Tigers.  That also reinforces the point that the Tigers are seldom a margin team as indicated by the fact that under Miles, LSU is 26-39 ATS as home chalk. 

Kentucky is the under the radar team in the SEC.  They enter today at 5-1 SU ATS, covering by a net of 65 points.  Their statistical dominance supports their success.  A vastly improved defense is allowing just 19 PPG on 343 YPG and only 4.6 YP play.  On offense, Kentucky is averaging 37 PPG on 449 YPG and 6.3 YP play.  They enter well rested following their 48-14 romp last Saturday over outmanned LA Monroe.  Credit 2nd year HC Stoops for the turnaround in a team who went 4-20 SU, 5-16 ATS in the previous 2 years being outscored by an average of 31-19 in those two seasons.

No surprise to this bureau if Kentucky, behind their outstanding QB Towles and a vastly improved defense, take this game to the final minute, resulting in an easy ATS victory for this "Perception/Reality" selection.