Play Troy vs. Georgia Southern Before NCAA Football Odds Move

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, October 27, 2014 6:30 PM GMT

This College Football handicapper has over two decades worth of betting odds analysis and valuable insight to apply to each and every free pick he shares. Find out what he predicts for Troy vs. Georgia Southern. 

You will want to play this College Football pick early, as I can see the line going nowhere but up in this contest.  In the last 25 years, my college football STEAMROLLERS have been based on dominance at the point of attack.  Generally speaking, I can use my statistical categories of the 200 Club, the Double Rushers, the Defensive Dandies, and the Defensive Duds to isolate these plays.  More specifically, the key numbers come with offensive vs. defensive running yards and yards per rush.  When it all comes together, there can be but one side.

Troy St. 25th year HC Blakeney is retiring after this season, at the end of an illustrious career. The Trojans were the toast of the Sun Belt in the early 2000’s with Blakeney leading them to numerous Sun Belt titles and Bowl games.  This year, however, the loss of 4-year starting QB Robinson has led to a downward spiral on the offensive side of the ball.  The defense, which has allowed 30 or more PPG and 400 or more YPG in the last 4 seasons, is also in a tailspin.  The result is a 1-7 SU, 3-5 ATS mark in which they have failed to the number by 108 net points.  In next week’s article of the Pointspread Prognosis, I will deal with “Super Surgers vs. Towel Tossers.”  You can be assured that Troy will be on the list of the latter, while GA Southern will be on the list of the former.  To statistically note Troy’s offensive ineptitude, it should be pointed out they average just 19 PPG and 355 YPG.  But, it is the defensive side of the ball which has made a serious downturn.  The Trojans now allow 39 PPG on 461 YPG and 6.4 YP play.  But, their biggest undoing will come at the point of attack, where their front 7 is allowing 245/5.7. 

Last week, I used GA Southern as my STEAMROLLER OF THE WEEK.  In that analysis, I spoke of the ascent of the Eagles’ program in the previous 4 seasons.   Under former HC Monken, Southern had a record of 38-16 SU.  With 15 RS this year and loads of experience in the OL and RB positions, there is reason to believe they could be successful at the Sun Belt level under 1st year HC Fritz.  After all, the bread and butter of this team was a ground attack that in each of the previous two years, had rushed for 360/6.3 or better.  That is expected against the Savanah States of the world.  But, when the Eagles closed out the 2013 season with a 26-20 win at Florida (as +28) and rushed 54 times for 429 yards, the buy signal was flashed. 

The linemaker was quick to make adjustments after the 5-0 ATS start.  Though 2 defeats dot their resume, note those were by a combined 5 points at ACC teams, Georgia Tech and NC State.  Last week, in our STEAMROLLER OF THE WEEK vs. GA State, the Eagles soared to a 69-31 win in which they outrushed GA State 63/613 to 23/47.  THAT IS NOT A MISPRINT, 613 running yards.  What do you think they will do against Troy’s defense?  Me, too!  …  Especially with the ESPN cameras on a Thursday night football stage!

Free College Football Pick: Georgia Southern at The Greek