Play Ole Miss as the College Football Pick to Cover Spread vs. Florida

Willie Bee

Monday, September 28, 2015 5:56 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 28, 2015 5:56 PM UTC

A showdown between 4-0 teams looms in the SEC this week, and we're taking an early look at the matchup between Mississippi and Florida with a free NCAA football pick.

The World's Largest Cocktail Party takes place on Halloween this year, giving Florida and Georgia fans reason to get liquored up just a little more than usual. The game is also shaping up as the SEC East Championship, adding extra fuel to the tailgating fires, though neither the Gators nor Bulldogs can afford to get caught peeking that far ahead right now.

That's especially true for Jim McElwain and his Gators who have three very tough encounters plus a week off before the big Halloween clash. Up first are the Mississippi Rebels who come to Gainesville ranked third in the latest AP Top 25 and the only Southeastern Conference team currently drawing 1st-place votes in either poll.

Kickoff at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium is set for straight-up seven o'clock Saturday evening with ESPN beaming the broadcast nationally. Wagering begins with Ole Miss laying a touchdown on the road; college football odds will have the total as soon as it is released.

The rivalry began almost 90 years ago, but the series has been played sporadically since then with Saturday's clash just the 24th between the Rebels and Gators. Mississippi has the 12-10 edge in the meetings, the 1934 battle ending in a 13-all tie. It was seven years ago when they last got together on a gridiron, Ole Miss stunning then-No. 4 Florida with a 31-30 upset in Gainesville, the only loss the Gators would suffer on their way to the BCS Championship.

Florida was favored by 23 in that game, giving the Rebels 5-straight covers against the College Football Odds. Four of the five games in that span remained 'under' the totals.


Rebels Avoid Upset Loss To Vandy
Most of us were expecting a little bit of a letdown last week for Mississippi (4-0 straight up, 3-1 against the spread), but what we almost got was what would have been the biggest upset so far of the season. Favored by 27, the Rebels had to dig down deep and late to come away with a 27-16 decision.

Hugh Freeze's troops were coming off a big 43-37 win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa and entered the contest with the Commodores averaging 64 points per game. Chad Kelly and the Rebels were never really in synch on offense, however, some of their own sloppy play responsible for most of that along with a fired-up Vandy defense. Kelly threw for over 300 yards but also tossed a pair of interceptions on a 24-for-42 afternoon. Senior tailback Jaylen Walton got loose for 133 yards on 21 totes.

The Rebels come into this matchup pretty healthy, and Freeze won't have to worry  about his team looking ahead to next week. Mississippi will go out of the SEC for the following two weeks with matchups against New Mexico State and Memphis.


Gators Need Late Rally To Top Tennessee
McElwain and his staff not only need to keep their Florida (4-0 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) players focused on this week's tussle, they also have to bring the Gators down from an emotional rally and win over Tennessee last Saturday. Trailing by 13 late in the fourth quarter, freshman QB Will Grier brought the Gators back with two late touchdown passes, the last a 63-yard catch and run by Antonio Callaway with a minute and a half remaining.

Florida then had to hold on for the 28-27 victory, which pushed a 1 point spread, as Tennessee missed a late field goal that would have stopped a 10-game win streak for the Gators in the rivalry. The Gators had some trouble stopping the Volunteers on the ground, both Joshua Dobbs and Jalen Hurd eclipsing the 100-yard mark, after allowing only 166 total rushing yards in their first three contests.

The Gators will be missing a few key contributors, including tight end C'yontai Lewis who is questionable with a hand injury. In addition, backup QB Treon Harris and defensive back Kylan Johnson are questionable while serving suspensions.

College football bettors will want to monitor the weather before going to the window; Saturday looks good right now, but there is rain in the Gainesville forecast on Friday which could linger. I'm liking the Rebels by 10 in this one and will give up the seven for my free college football pick.

College Football Pick: Mississippi -7 (+100) at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2830105, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here