Place NCAAF Pick on Auburn over Visiting Texas A&M

Willie Bee

Tuesday, November 4, 2014 3:13 PM GMT

This NCAAF handicapper points out that Texas A&M went from darlings to bums in October, and the Aggies face a tough one to begin November as they face No. 3 Auburn. 

This is one of those times that being wrong wouldn't be a bad thing, at least for the fan inside of me. I don't believe I am wrong, however, and that means this week's matchup between the Texas A&M Aggies and Auburn Tigers is going to get real ugly, real fast.

College football bettors seem to agree with me; after the spread started with Auburn 20 point home chalk, it took less than 24 hours to drive that number up to -22. SBR's live College Football odds currently show the Tigers at -21½, and a total should be out soon for the contest that CBS is broadcasting at 3:30 PM (ET).

Auburn and A&M are getting together for the third consecutive season as conference foes, those results split between the two. The Aggies won the other two matchups prior to that, one of 'em way back in 1911 and the other at the 1986 Cotton Bowl against a Tigers bunch that featured Heisman Trophy winner Bo Jackson.

The clashes as SEC rivals both easily skipped past the totals to 'over' bettors' delight. Last season's get-together in College Station was a wild one that saw Auburn score three times in the fourth quarter to rally for a 45-41 decision.

Make the best College Football picks in Week 11 with this report on 'Dangerous Dogs.'

Ags Reach Jordan-Hare In Disarray
Hard to believe that six short weeks ago, Texas A&M was receiving four 1st-place votes in the AP poll. The only 1st-place votes the Aggies would get now might be for the most disappointing team of the season, and a 3-6 record against the spread is certainly part of the disappointment for their backers.

It also wasn't that long ago that Kenny Hill was part of the Heisman discussions, but he'll sit out at least one more game on suspension after falling off on the field then finding himself in Kevin Sumlin's doghouse. True freshman Kyle Allen will make his second consecutive start under center for the Aggies, and looks to improve on a 13-for-28, 106 yard performance last week against Louisiana-Monroe.

Texas A&M was favored by more than 30 against the Warhawks, and barely escaped with a 21-16 win at Kyle Field. Allen's lackluster debut wasn't the only issue for the Aggies, the most glaring of which were poor play by the O-Line and DBs. Speedy Noil had a nice day and made a few highlight reels catching five balls from Allen, and fellow freshman Myles Garrett led a defensive front that has been weak against the run all season.

But then, this was Louisiana-Monroe, a team the Aggies were supposed to clobber, and the last time A&M went into The Yellowhammer State just a few weeks back, Alabama routed them, 59-0.

 

Letdown And/Or Look-Ahead Spot For Auburn?
I don't like the spot Auburn's in here between an emotional rally at Ole Miss last week and a trip to Georgia next Saturday. Not to mention, everyone in War Eagle country is already allowing for a little thought-time for the Alabama game three weeks from this one.

Still, the Tigers should be able to dominate in the trenches on both sides of the pigskin, harassing Allen in his own backfield to possibly force a few turnovers all the while running the ball down the Aggies' throats. Nick Marshall should also be able to burn an A&M secondary that has managed just three picks all season and is 75th in the country allowing 236.4 yards per game.

It's supposed to be an enjoyable afternoon in Auburn according to the weatherman -- the thermometer just scratching into the low-60s before cooling under mostly clear skies during the game. As always, get an update before you go to the wagering window of your choice.

There's just nothing about this matchup that suggests the Aggies have a prayer to stay inside of three touchdowns, much less win outright. The only chance at a cover is for Auburn to either come out flat after the big win over the Rebels, or if Gus Malzahn takes his foot off the gas early with the game at Georgia on deck. I'm not counting on either, and my free College Football pick will be on the Tigers in a rout.

Free College Football Pick:  Auburn -21.5 at 5Dimes
Season: 49-29-1 (+17.10)