Pick Texas A&M to Cover vs. SMU in College Football Betting

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, September 16, 2014 3:51 PM GMT

Tuesday, Sep. 16, 2014 3:51 PM GMT

Our NCAA football betting guru has gone 10-2 to start the season at SBR Picks. Read his football handicapping article pertaining to the Saturday contest between Texas A&M/SMU that culminates with a point-spread college football free pick.

Non-Conference Texas Showdown
The SMU Mustangs will host the Texas A&M Aggies on Saturday at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas with the opening kickoff slated for 3:30 PM ET. According to college football odds, the Aggies are a 31.5 point road favorite, and there was no total posted at the time of this writing. These teams have met in each of the past 3-seasons, with the Aggies having gone 3-0 SU&ATS in those contests, and won by an average of 35.3 points per game.

 

Great Start for the Aggies
A lot of the experts weren’t sold on Texas A&M as an upper echelon team entering the 2014 college football season. After all, their previous 2 quarterbacks Johnny Manziel and Ryan Tannehill were both 1st round NFL draft picks, and enter unproven sophomore Kenny Hill as the new starter. All that Hill has done in the first 3-games of the season is complete 69.2% of his pass attempts, for 1094 yards, and 11 touchdowns versus no interceptions. He was extremely impressive in the season opener when he threw for 511-yards during a shocking 52-28 win at South Carolina. The Aggies are off to a terrific 3-0 start in which they’ve outscored their opponents by combined scores of 163-41. They don’t figure to be slowed down by the porous SMU defense this week. This is head coach Kevin Sumlin’s 3rd year at Texas A&M and he’s led the Aggies to a 23-6 record during that time.

Texas A&M 2014-15 College Football Season

Massacred Mustangs
The good news for the Mustangs is that they’ve had an extra week to prepare for their home opener versus the #5 ranked Aggies. The bad news is they’ve been crushed in their first 2-games of the season by scores of 45-0 at Baylor, and 45-6 at North Texas. The Mustangs head coach June Jones has developed the reputation at both SMU and Hawaii for having prolific passing attacks. That’s hardly been the case over the first 2-games as the Mustangs are averaging just 178.5 yards passing, and scored a grand total of just 6-points. The SMU defense has been gashed on the ground by allowing an average of 253 yards per game rushing by their opponents. The Mustangs -6 turnover differential to start the season certainly hasn’t helped their cause.

 

Final Analysis
This is a scary matchup for a SMU defense that been porous against the run, and will be facing the 6th best passing offense in the country. The Aggies also run the ball very well averaging 187.3 yards per game. The only thing that can prevent Texas A&M from winning this one by a huge margin is Texas A&M, if they somehow are flat, or self destruct. Anything is possible, but in this case it’s highly improbable. These are the types of big numbers that I always steer clear of. However, if you put the proverbial gun to my head, I would lean toward laying the big number with the favorite.

College Football Pick: Texas A&M -32.5 at 5Dimes

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