Pick Road Favorite Cincinnati ATS vs. Temple for NCAAF Betting

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, November 26, 2014 2:19 PM GMT

Temple’s season is all but done while Cincinnati’s won 5 straight and is still playing for something so laying the 7 and backing the Bearcats is the bet here Saturday in the City of Brotherly Love.

Odds Overview
Cincinnati at Temple: (Cincinnati -7, Pinnacle), Saturday 17:00 (ESPN News, 12 p.m. ET/9 a.m. PT): You can see how much prestige this American Athletic Conference game between visiting Cincinnati (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS, 5-1 AAC) and Temple (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS, 3-3 AAC) at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia has by the fact it’s being shown on ESPN News early Saturday so don’t expect much talk or highlights from this meeting which probably can only enhance the Bearcats chances of playing in a better bowl game and/or making a run at the conference title, for whatever that’s worth. The point spread in this game opened up at Cincinnati -5 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) and was quickly bet up to -7 by early Tuesday with heavy money on the Favorites. The Money Line (Winner) college football odds see Cincinnati as healthy -270 Favorites with host and Underdogs Temple priced at +225 (Ladbrokes). The Total Points is set at 58 (bet365).  

 

Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincinnati QB Gunner Kiel (185 completions, 2,646 yards, 27 TDs, 153.5 QBR) is playing hurt but Bearcats head coach Tommy Tuberville (11-11 ATS) said last week that his talented QB—suffering from a rib injury—would likely be playing sore for the rest of the season. Unlike his opponent the Owls, Cincinnati’s Kiel has a number of quality skill guys to help keep the ball moving forward. RBs Rodriguez Moore and Mike Boone are effective enough to give the Bearcats a decent Rushing attack (#65, 165.8 ypg) while the Bearcats boast the 13th best Passing game in the nation (308.0 ypg) with a talented army of productive receivers who can all get the ball in the end zone including star MeKale McKay (33 receptions, 604 yards, 7 TDs), Shaq Washington (53 receptions, 573 yards, 3 TDs, 15.8 ypc), Chris Moore (24 receptions, 548 yards, 6 TDs), Max Morrison (36 receptions, 380 yards, 4 TDs) and Johnny Holton (23 receptions, 375 yards, 5 TDs, 16.3 ypc), among others. Cincinnati comes in here with the 17th best Scoring offense in the nation, averaging 37.3 ppg, and although it will be going up a very respectable defense in Temple’s, the Bearcats are still in the hunt for the AAC title and can still actually finish with 10 wins with a victory here in Philadelphia; a win in their final regular season game at Home next weekend (Dec. 6) against Houston; and a win in whatever bowl game the Bearcats may potentially end up in. And with 5 straight wins and Temple below average recently SU (4-10 L14 Home), using Cincinnati -270 on the Moneyline as a parlay element should be a pretty good idea.

 

Temple Owls
Temple has relied on its defense to stay even just mediocre this season as the offense is still apparently doing spring drills or something. The Owls rank 86th in the country in Scoring per game (26.1 ppg), thanks to their #94 Passing attack and pathetic #115 Rushing offense. So, the defense—ranked #15 in Scoring (19.3 ppg)—has had to be solid or this team would be like the Old Temple (circa Nineties) was. QB PJ Walker (164 completions, 1,866 yards, 12 TDs, 14 INTs) has more picks than TD throws to date and the drop off from top WR Jalen Fitzpatrick (41 receptions, 625 yards, 6 TDs, 15.2 ypc) to the next wave of 2-3-4 receivers at Temple looks pretty sad. And when your defense is the thing you have to brag about and it’s made those sexy-looking 19.3 ppg-allowed numbers against the likes of Delaware State (0 points allowed in a 59-0 curb-stomping), Vanderbilt (7), Connecticut (10) and Houston (10), well, then there’s not much that can be written about this Owls team that with only Tulane left on its schedule (Dec. 6), may now be playing to simply try to finish above the .500 mark and maybe make the Sunny D Bowl in Hackensack or something equally as mundane. Hey at least basketball season is here, right Temple?

 

Best Betting Approaches and Trends
These two schools don’t have a deep history—Cincinnati is 4-0 SU vs Temple outscoring the Owls by an average of 34.3 ppg to 19.0 ppg in those 4 meetings—but the Bearcats have smashed the Owls the L2 seasons (34-10 and 38-20), the latter coming last season in Cincinnati where 20½-point Underdog Temple actually covered the spread. So say your prayers at night. Temple is 1-4 SU in its L5 games and 4-10 SU over its L14 here at Home, so, as mentioned above, a little Cincinnati on the Moneyline (-270, Pinnacle) on a parlay is a good starting point, especially knowing the Bearcats (6-3 L9 SU on Road) have the momentum of that aforementioned 5-game win streak, have a shot at winning this conference and are still playing for the best bowl possible.

As far as trends and the Total here,  the Under is 4-2 in the L6 Temple games at Home, is 4-1 in the L5 Cincinnati games and 5-2 in the L7 Road games for the Bearcats. But the best bet here for your college football picks would simply have to be taking the much better team with the better QB and better skill guys with something to play for against a milktoast team which is 2-4 ATS in its L6 and playing for nothing. But if you are going to bet it, try to get it at -7 before it possibly rises as laying -7 and laying -7½ have two very different and distinct feels in both college and professional football over four full quarters of play as most avid gamblers know well.

College Football Pick: Cincinnati -7 at 5Dimes

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