Pick 'Over' for NCAA Football Rose Bowl: Florida State/Oregon

Jeff Grant

Tuesday, December 23, 2014 3:12 PM GMT

Florida State and Oregon will be led offensively by the last two Heisman Trophy winners, which makes the betting total a popular pick in the 2015 Rose Bowl.

Away From Home
Florida State averaged 494.8 yards in winning all six of its road or neutral site contests this season, which is important to consider when looking over the College Football odds, as it gained 7.14 yards per play in that situation.

The Seminoles relied heavily on the arm of 2013 Heisman winner Jameis Winston when playing away from Tallahassee, as he completed 65 percent of his passes and averaged 344.3 yards through the air.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the program is 19-22 ATS versus lined opponents, with the OVER going 22-16 in 38 opportunities.

 

Cashing In
Oregon led the Pac-12 Conference with a plus-17 turnover margin, which can’t be ignored when making your College Football pick, as it resulted in ranking sixth nationally in scoring 120 points off of opponents’ mistakes.

The Ducks forced at least one turnover in 12 of 13 games this season—leading directly to this year’s Heisman winner Marcus Mariota turning those miscues into at least seven points in 10 of 12 contests.

It’s important to point out that the squad is 2-0 SUATS as favorites of 3.5 to 10 points this season, with the OVER cashing in both of those affairs.

 

Line Play
Winston should receive plenty of time to survey the field in Pasadena, as he’ll be protected by an offensive line that has 164 career starts, while Oregon’s defense must also respect Florida State’s running game.

Freshman tailback Dalvin Cook is one of the more explosive players in the country—needing just 155 carries to gain 905 rushing yards to this point.  

With all of these playmakers, the Seminoles take care of business in the red zone, as they’ve converted 38-of-42 chances versus Power 5 conference opponents this year.

 

The Other Guy
Sports bettors are certainly aware of Cook’s flashiness out of the Sunshine State, but the Ducks have a capable player alongside Mariota, with running back Royce Freeman gaining 98 or more yards on the ground in his last eight contests.

Freeman’s 1,299 rushing yards on the year are the second-most by a freshman in Pac-12 history.  He should find some running room against a stop unit that allowed 4.7 yards per carry away from home.

 

Prediction
I've already shared my free picks against the spread for this match, and now I’m going to recommend that readers play the OVER as one of their top Rose Bowl picks, as the Ducks have gone above the number in five of their last seven non-conference games.

Free College Football Pick: Over 72 at 5Dimes