Pick Oregon State to Upset Arizona State

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, November 13, 2014 9:45 PM GMT

Thursday, Nov. 13, 2014 9:45 PM GMT

This weeks perception/reality game goes to a PAC 12 contest on ESPN TV between the high flying Arizona St. Sun Devils and an Oregon St. team that is down on their luck.

Arizona St. (-9-) vs. Oregon St. 10:45 ET ESPN
Each week in this space, I select a college football game in which one team has attracted the love of the linemaker and public for their recent performance, resulting in a substantial overlay in the price. Our play on team has underperformed for the YTD.  Yet, still shows elements of being able to bounce back. Such is the case today in one of the stronger PERCEPTION/REALITY games this season. 

In this Saturday night PAC 12 battle, Arizona St. leaves the comfy confines of their desert home to travel to the much cooler and damper northwest.  Arizona St. has just played a meat-grinder schedule which since September 25th has seen them face UCLA, USC, Stanford, Washington, Utah and Notre Dame.  The Sun Devils enter on a 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS run with the lone non-cover being a draining home OT win vs. Utah 2 weeks ago.  They followed that up with an explosive 55-31 home win last week against Notre Dame. A closer look at those stats shows us that Notre Dame actually won the yardage battle in that contest, 487-412, but committed 5 costly TOs. Nonetheless, the scoreboard registered a 24 point win for the home team.  That sets up a key play against factor that tells us to fade any team who just beat Notre Dame, if they come favored in their next contest.  This has been one of the most amazingly consistent letdown spots in all of college football.  Now, Arizona St. is 8-1 SU for the season, remains in the national championship hunt and leads the PAC 12 South by a game in the loss column against UCLA, USC and Arizona.  Surely, their focus will be their season-ending rivalry showdown vs. Arizona for division supremacy.  In the meantime, they must go through the formalities of facing the bottom feeders from the north, Washington St., who is 2-5SU in the league and this Oregon St. team who is 1-5 SU in the PAC 12.   

But, few will be interested in backing this Oregon St. team, who has gone 1-8 ATS on college football odds this season and enters on a 4-game losing streak to Utah, Stanford, Cal and Washington St. Last week, they fell to the Cougars (39-32) on this very field, when they allowed the 2nd string Cougar signal caller to pass for 471 yards. A main reason for the Oregon St. demise is a defense that is allowing 36 PPG in conference play.  With the Beavers just 2-9 ATS at home of late, many will believe they have tossed the towel. Nothing could be further from the truth.  For if you paid attention to my Super Surger article last week, you would understand that Oregon St., at 4-5 SU for the season, with 3 games remaining still has a chance to qualify for post-season play. 

Having been embarrassed on this field in consecutive weeks, and now catching Arizona St. in the ultimate letdown spot, look for the Beavers to play their best game of the season in pulling the outright upset on Saturday night for your college football picks.

College Football Picks: Oregon State at 5Dimes

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