Pick Oregon State Plus the Points vs. Stanford College Football

Darin Zank

Wednesday, October 22, 2014 1:31 PM GMT

Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2014 1:31 PM GMT

Stanford has won and covered four games in a row against Oregon State, but it's also lost two of its last three games straight-up and three of four ATS. The Cardinal host the Beavers Saturday afternoon down on the Farm.

Beavers-Cardinal Betting Odds
According to SBR's live college football odds, Stanford opened at a 14-point favorite over Oregon State, with a total of 44, but as of Wednesday morning most shops had dropped the Cardinal to -13.

Those bettors who believe the Beavers might pull the outright upset could get a tempting price of +400 on the moneyline at 5Dimes.

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Beavers-Cardinal: The Situation
With only 12 starters back from a team that went 11-3 and won the Pac-12 last year Stanford went off as a 6/1 shot to win a third straight conference title. But with two conference losses already the Cardinal can't afford another one.

Stanford opened this season with a 45-0 scrimmage against Cal-Davis, but then began Pac-12 play with a 13-10 loss at home to USC. The Cardinal outgained the Trojans 413-291, but committed two turnovers and eight penalties, including an iffy cross-block that negated a fourth-quarter Kevin Hogan touchdown pass.

Stanford then won at Washington 20-13, outgaining the Huskies 364-179, but then stepped back out of conference and lost at Notre Dame 17-14 on an Everett Golson touchdown pass on fourth down with a minute to go. The Cardinal got outgained by the Irish 370-205.

Stanford then beat Washington State 34-17, covering as 16-point favorites, but last week lost at Arizona State 26-10. The Cardinal got outgained by the Sun Devils 356-288, held the ball for only 25 minutes and allowed ASU to convert nine-of-19 third downs into first downs.

With 14 starters back from a team that went 7-6 last year Oregon State hoped for better than just another middle-of-the-pack finish in the Pac-12 North. But while the Beavers are off to a 4-2 start to this season (2-4 ATS), both losses have come in conference play.

OSU opened with an underwhelming 29-14 victory over Portland State, then won at Hawaii 38-30 in a game that wasn't that close, then topped San Diego State 28-7. But the Beavers began Pac-12 play with a 35-10 loss at USC, coming up empty ATS as seven-point dogs.

Oregon State then won at Colorado 36-31, covering as four-point favorites, but last Thursday lost at home in overtime to Utah 29-23. The Beavers tied the game with a field goal on the last play of regulation, but missed a field goal to begin the second OT, and fell when Utes RB Devontae Booker capped off a huge game with a 19-yard touchdown run.

OSU outgained Utah 391-315, but could only manage 119 yards rushing on 46 carries, while the Utes racked up 253 yards on the same number of attempts.

The Beavers have outgained two of their three conference foes so far, but been outrushed by an average of 77 yards per game.

 

Beavers-Cardinal Recent History
Stanford has beaten Oregon State four times in a row, covering the spread as chalk each time. Last year the Cardinal beat the Beavers 20-12 in Corvallis, covering as four-point road favorites. Oregon State actually outgained Stanford 288-273 and held the ball for almost 39 minutes, but the Cardinal ran for 185 yards, while holding the Beavers to just 17 yards on the ground.

 

Beavers-Cardinal Betting Trends
These two teams are a combined 2-9 on the totals this season.

Oregon State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven conference road games, and 6-2 ATS in its last eight games as a road dog.

Stanford is 4-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite with Hogan at quarterback.

In the “WTF” category Pac-12 home teams are just 7-16 SU and 9-14 ATS in conference games so far this season.

 

Beavers-Cardinal Free Pick
When analyzing your free college football pick keep in mind Stanford is probably going to win this game, but that spread just seems a bit too much. The Beavers have battled the Cardinal to tough games the last two seasons, and we won't be surprised if Saturday's game is also decided by one score or less.

Free College Football Pick: Oregon State +13.5 at The Greek

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